Türkiye vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Over (57%) · Over at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 12

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 57%

Total Value

$5.4K

Combined PnL

-$458.05

Smart Money Entry

86.9¢ → 100¢

+15% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over8 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,700

Combined PnL-$40.83

Under6 traders

Total Value$531.61

Total Shares4,276

Combined PnL-$417.22

Over — 57%Under — 43%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$1.63	99% 147-2 (149)
RN1	Overavg 67.9¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$57.55	56% 4488-3464 (7952)
SU suntoriCTR	Underavg 38.5¢	$1.1K	$460.94	+$282.5	47% 1625-1826 (3451)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 76.1¢	$152.22	$131.35	-$20.86	48% 2223-2408 (4631)
SN SnakeBall	Overavg 76¢	$97.21	$127.72	+$30.51	46% 440-515 (955)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 22¢	$38.12	$60.65	+$22.53	33% 558-1111 (1669)
nigiri99<$100	Overavg 77¢	$40.81	$52.95	+$12.14	52% 352-329 (681)
NO NordhavenCap<$100	Overavg 67.1¢	$33.11	$32.09	-$1.02	14% 29-185 (214)
RO Rocko33<$100	Overavg 94.7¢	$26.52	$18.2	-$8.32	66% 31-16 (47)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 76¢	$8.41	$11.06	+$2.65	54% 994-856 (1850)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 26¢	$5.12	$6.89	+$1.77	32% 538-1128 (1666)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 28¢	$1.4	$1.75	+$0.35	49% 1241-1273 (2514)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Underavg 24¢	$364.66	$0.76	-$363.9	33% 553-1135 (1688)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 29.1¢	$361.09	$0.62	-$360.47	51% 2545-2464 (5009)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$3,252.13

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$1.63

Record

99%

147-2 (149)

RN1

Over

Invested

$1,344.88

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$57.55

Record

56%

4488-3464 (7952)

suntoriCTR

Under

Invested

$1,121.28

Value

$460.94

PnL

+$282.5

Record

47%

1625-1826 (3451)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$152.22

Value

$131.35

PnL

-$20.86

Record

48%

2223-2408 (4631)

SnakeBall

Over

Invested

$97.21

Value

$127.72

PnL

+$30.51

Record

46%

440-515 (955)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$38.12

Value

$60.65

PnL

+$22.53

Record

33%

558-1111 (1669)

nigiri99<$100

Over

Invested

$40.81

Value

$52.95

PnL

+$12.14

Record

52%

352-329 (681)

NordhavenCap<$100

Over

Invested

$33.11

Value

$32.09

PnL

-$1.02

Record

14%

29-185 (214)

Rocko33<$100

Over

Invested

$26.52

Value

$18.2

PnL

-$8.32

Record

66%

31-16 (47)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$8.41

Value

$11.06

PnL

+$2.65

Record

54%

994-856 (1850)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.12

Value

$6.89

PnL

+$1.77

Record

32%

538-1128 (1666)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$1.4

Value

$1.75

PnL

+$0.35

Record

49%

1241-1273 (2514)

LightParadoxCTR

Under

Invested

$364.66

Value

$0.76

PnL

-$363.9

Record

33%

553-1135 (1688)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$361.09

Value

$0.62

PnL

-$360.47

Record

51%

2545-2464 (5009)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

8 of 14 top traders (57%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 88%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

62% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 67% · 6

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Over 62% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.