Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Belgium?
6 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (55%) · No at 100¢ · $844 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 55%
$844.37
-$16.5
89.5¢ → 100¢
+12% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 11 top traders (55%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Fresh
1h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 89¢ | $342.77 | $353.98 | +$11.2 | 51% 2545-2464 (5009) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 89¢ | $155.75 | $161 | +$5.25 | 59% 3535-2417 (5952) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 89¢ | $142.9 | $147.72 | +$4.82 | 26% 153-428 (581) |
SN SnakeBallCTR | Yesavg 10¢ | $105.93 | $84.74 | -$21.19 | 46% 440-515 (955) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Yesavg 2.7¢ | $101.54 | $37.21 | +$27.66 | 48% 2223-2408 (4631) |
PV pvc975<$100 | Noavg 99.9¢ | $37.75 | $34.77 | -$2.99 | 99% 147-2 (149) |
 RN1<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $12.62 | $12.51 | -$0.11 | 56% 4488-3464 (7952) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 89¢ | $7.55 | $7.64 | +$0.09 | 41% 552-797 (1349) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $4.76 | $3.03 | -$1.73 | 47% 1625-1826 (3451) |
LI LimousinCTR<$100 | Yesavg 10¢ | $2 | $1.6 | -$0.4 | 32% 534-1112 (1646) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Yesavg 11¢ | $39.28 | $0.18 | -$39.1 | 32% 538-1128 (1666) |
Invested
$342.77
Value
$353.98
PnL
+$11.2
Record
51%
2545-2464 (5009)
Invested
$155.75
Value
$161
PnL
+$5.25
Record
59%
3535-2417 (5952)
Invested
$142.9
Value
$147.72
PnL
+$4.82
Record
26%
153-428 (581)
Invested
$105.93
Value
$84.74
PnL
-$21.19
Record
46%
440-515 (955)
Invested
$101.54
Value
$37.21
PnL
+$27.66
Record
48%
2223-2408 (4631)
Invested
$37.75
Value
$34.77
PnL
-$2.99
Record
99%
147-2 (149)
RN1<$100Invested
$12.62
Value
$12.51
PnL
-$0.11
Record
56%
4488-3464 (7952)
Invested
$7.55
Value
$7.64
PnL
+$0.09
Record
41%
552-797 (1349)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$3.03
PnL
-$1.73
Record
47%
1625-1826 (3451)
Invested
$2
Value
$1.6
PnL
-$0.4
Record
32%
534-1112 (1646)
Invested
$39.28
Value
$0.18
PnL
-$39.1
Record
32%
538-1128 (1666)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.