Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: 1st Half O/U 2.5

11 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (73%) · Under at 74¢ · $6K held · ended Nov 14

Over27¢Under73¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 73%

4 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.4K

Combined PnL

$-2.5K

Smart Money Entry

50.2¢ → 73.5¢

+46% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over27%

Under74%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$3.8K

Total Shares5,908

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Over4 traders

Total Value$553.47

Total Shares1,759

Combined PnL-$585.13

Under — 73%Over — 27%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.1K	$1.8K	-$297.07	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
└ Under leg	Underavg 50.7¢	$648.76	$895.91	+$247.15
└ Over leg	Overavg 49¢	$1.4K	$858.82	-$544.22
RN1	Underavg 47.6¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$29	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 63.5¢	$753.39	$860.28	+$106.89	64% 313-173 (486)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 48¢	$551.9	$805.58	+$253.68	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
JhonAlexanderHinestroza	Underavg 44¢	$9.3K	$643.23	$-2.3K	54% 401-341 (742)
dips.CTR	Overavg 57.7¢	$745.04	$387.6	-$357.44	47% 993-1122 (2115)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 29.7¢	$251.46	$127.63	+$19.39	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Under leg	Underavg 42.8¢	$44.98	$73.63	+$29.14
└ Over leg	Overavg 29.7¢	$53.52	$54	-$9.75
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR	Overavg 86¢	$342	$119.3	-$222.7	99% 480-7 (487)
poshposhARB<$100	Overavg 55.1¢	$116.13	$119.06	+$2.93	49% 1173-1237 (2410)
└ Over leg	Overavg 55.1¢	$96.33	$93.48	-$2.85
└ Under leg	Underavg 36¢	$19.81	$25.58	+$5.78
PA pauleta23ARB<$100	Overavg 82.9¢	$108.47	$70.19	-$36.38	40% 442-667 (1109)
└ Under leg	Underavg 30.1¢	$16.42	$38.17	+$20.07
└ Over leg	Overavg 82.9¢	$88.47	$32.02	-$56.45
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 32.8¢	$37.66	$46.52	+$8.86	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 54¢	$50.56	$45.79	-$4.77	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 38.7¢	$22.19	$40.09	+$17.9	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 84¢	$34.49	$35.32	+$0.82	59% 717-491 (1208)
LI LightParadox<$100	Underavg 45¢	$30.12	$29.79	-$0.33	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
NO NotJump<$100	Underavg 43¢	$21.5	$22.25	+$0.75	52% 852-801 (1653)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 36¢	$11.2	$12.29	+$1.09	36% 979-1704 (2683)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 84¢	$7.4	$7.58	+$0.18	53% 1815-1613 (3428)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 18¢	$1	$0.78	-$0.22	31% 104-232 (336)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$2,051.8

Value

$1.8K

PnL

-$297.07

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Both legs:

Under$648.7650.7¢+$247.15

Over$1,403.0349¢-$544.22

RN1

Under

Invested

$1,300.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$29

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$753.39

Value

$860.28

PnL

+$106.89

Record

64%

313-173 (486)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$551.9

Value

$805.58

PnL

+$253.68

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

JhonAlexanderHinestroza

Under

Invested

$9,268.51

Value

$643.23

PnL

$-2.3K

Record

54%

401-341 (742)

dips.CTR

Over

Invested

$745.04

Value

$387.6

PnL

-$357.44

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$251.46

Value

$127.63

PnL

+$19.39

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Under$44.9842.8¢+$29.14

Over$53.5229.7¢-$9.75

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR

Over

Invested

$342

Value

$119.3

PnL

-$222.7

Record

99%

480-7 (487)

poshposhARB<$100

Over

Invested

$116.13

Value

$119.06

PnL

+$2.93

Record

49%

1173-1237 (2410)

Both legs:

Over$96.3355.1¢-$2.85

Under$19.8136¢+$5.78

pauleta23ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$108.47

Value

$70.19

PnL

-$36.38

Record

40%

442-667 (1109)

Both legs:

Under$16.4230.1¢+$20.07

Over$88.4782.9¢-$56.45

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$37.66

Value

$46.52

PnL

+$8.86

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$50.56

Value

$45.79

PnL

-$4.77

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$22.19

Value

$40.09

PnL

+$17.9

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$34.49

Value

$35.32

PnL

+$0.82

Record

59%

717-491 (1208)

LightParadox<$100

Under

Invested

$30.12

Value

$29.79

PnL

-$0.33

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

NotJump<$100

Under

Invested

$21.5

Value

$22.25

PnL

+$0.75

Record

52%

852-801 (1653)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$11.2

Value

$12.29

PnL

+$1.09

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$7.4

Value

$7.58

PnL

+$0.18

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.78

PnL

-$0.22

Record

31%

104-232 (336)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 74%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 15 top traders (73%)4 arbitrage traders dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance75.4%

73.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$32.54

Max Loss

-$100.00

132.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.