Will Sweden vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw?

14 of 17 top Polymarket traders hold No (82%) · No at 80¢ · $48K held · ends Nov 14

Yes21¢No79¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 82%

Total Value

$47.7K

Combined PnL

$43.98

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 79.5¢

+2% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes21%

No80%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$36.2K

Total Shares45,268

Combined PnL+$848.78

Yes3 traders

Total Value$11.5K

Total Shares55,872

Combined PnL-$804.8

No — 82%Yes — 18%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3	Noavg 78¢	$14.6K	$15.0K	+$375.37	59% 502-345 (847)
MI MigRodrCTR	Yesavg 21.9¢	$12.2K	$11.4K	-$777.85	29% 25-62 (87)
KY Kyn008	Noavg 78¢	$4.1K	$4.2K	+$105.62	41% 144-209 (353)
VeryLucky888	Noavg 78¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$100	53% 1351-1180 (2531)
RN1	Noavg 78¢	$3.9K	$4.0K	+$100	55% 5363-4304 (9667)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 78.6¢	$2.9K	$2.9K	+$51.29	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
NM NM-P	Noavg 78.5¢	$2.3K	$2.4K	+$46.22	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
GC GC-P	Noavg 78.4¢	$2.0K	$2.1K	+$42.1	37% 353-603 (956)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 78.5¢	$766.13	$780.8	+$14.67	48% 286-306 (592)
0xheavy888	Noavg 78.5¢	$314	$320	+$6	54% 496-419 (915)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 78¢	$192.62	$196.42	+$3.79	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
OD Oddstorm	Noavg 78¢	$144.22	$144.22	+$0	32% 99-207 (306)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 78.4¢	$72.94	$74.4	+$1.46	56% 463-370 (833)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 78¢	$49.04	$50.3	+$1.26	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
tradecraft<$100	Noavg 78¢	$39	$40	+$1	30% 335-776 (1111)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 33.3¢	$185.91	$9.55	-$26.84	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 21¢	$4.6	$4.49	-$0.11	46% 2653-3138 (5791)

0x9f15613ebf1f36d4bc679e1211d1fc567cf9bdb3

Invested

$14,639.31

Value

$15.0K

PnL

+$375.37

Record

59%

502-345 (847)

MigRodrCTR

Yes

Invested

$12,222

Value

$11.4K

PnL

-$777.85

Record

29%

25-62 (87)

Kyn008

Invested

$4,119.36

Value

$4.2K

PnL

+$105.62

Record

41%

144-209 (353)

VeryLucky888

Invested

$3,900

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$100

Record

53%

1351-1180 (2531)

RN1

Invested

$3,900

Value

$4.0K

PnL

+$100

Record

55%

5363-4304 (9667)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$2,855.92

Value

$2.9K

PnL

+$51.29

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

NM-P

Invested

$2,342.52

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$46.22

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

GC-P

Invested

$2,041.71

Value

$2.1K

PnL

+$42.1

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$766.13

Value

$780.8

PnL

+$14.67

Record

48%

286-306 (592)

0xheavy888

Invested

$314

Value

$320

PnL

+$6

Record

54%

496-419 (915)

Flaznorp

Invested

$192.62

Value

$196.42

PnL

+$3.79

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

Oddstorm

Invested

$144.22

Value

$144.22

PnL

+$0

Record

32%

99-207 (306)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$72.94

Value

$74.4

PnL

+$1.46

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$49.04

Value

$50.3

PnL

+$1.26

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

tradecraft<$100

Invested

$39

Value

$40

PnL

+$1

Record

30%

335-776 (1111)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$185.91

Value

$9.55

PnL

-$26.84

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.6

Value

$4.49

PnL

-$0.11

Record

46%

2653-3138 (5791)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 80%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 17 top traders (82%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-1 pts consensus

Breadth

14 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

3h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

82% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 75% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 81% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance81.3%

79.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$23.02

Max Loss

-$100.00

123.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.