San Marino vs. Belarus: 1st Half O/U 2.5
7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (78%) · Under at 100¢ · $745 held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 78%
$744.79
$42.97
70.7¢ → 100¢
+41% since entry · 7 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
7 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
78% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 74.2¢ | $492.18 | $453.33 | -$38.85 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 64.3¢ | $159.34 | $247.88 | +$88.54 | 62% 239-149 (388) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 75.3¢ | $15.06 | $18.81 | +$3.75 | 49% 1307-1343 (2650) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $5.98 | $6.78 | +$0.79 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Overavg 13¢ | $76.15 | $5.96 | -$11.19 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
LR lryyy<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $2.3 | $5 | +$2.7 | 44% 431-541 (972) |
LO lonmi2511<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $3.78 | $4.28 | +$0.5 | 60% 677-456 (1133) |
 poshposh<$100 | Underavg 46¢ | $1.26 | $2.74 | +$1.48 | 48% 590-645 (1235) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $4.76 | $0.01 | -$4.75 | 47% 1704-1945 (3649) |
Invested
$492.18
Value
$453.33
PnL
-$38.85
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$159.34
Value
$247.88
PnL
+$88.54
Record
62%
239-149 (388)
Invested
$15.06
Value
$18.81
PnL
+$3.75
Record
49%
1307-1343 (2650)
Invested
$5.98
Value
$6.78
PnL
+$0.79
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$76.15
Value
$5.96
PnL
-$11.19
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$5
PnL
+$2.7
Record
44%
431-541 (972)
Invested
$3.78
Value
$4.28
PnL
+$0.5
Record
60%
677-456 (1133)
poshposh<$100Invested
$1.26
Value
$2.74
PnL
+$1.48
Record
48%
590-645 (1235)
Invested
$4.76
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$4.75
Record
47%
1704-1945 (3649)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.