San Marino vs. Belarus: 1st Half O/U 1.5
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (56%) · Over at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 56%
$1.2K
$210.29
57¢ → 100¢
+75% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-11 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 84%
Freshness
Fresh
9h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
3 consensus flips
56% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 84% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Overavg 37.9¢ | $479.59 | $673.07 | +$193.48 | 51% 2634-2567 (5201) |
PV pvc975 | Overavg 99.9¢ | $281.41 | $267.61 | -$13.8 | 99% 175-2 (177) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 60.6¢ | $74.28 | $83.78 | +$9.5 | 41% 589-849 (1438) |
SU suntori<$100 | Overavg 41¢ | $33.33 | $81.25 | +$47.92 | 47% 1704-1945 (3649) |
VA Vampiro1<$100 | Overavg 94.7¢ | $74.85 | $78.96 | +$4.11 | 87% 87-13 (100) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Overavg 37.9¢ | $14.09 | $33.07 | +$18.98 | 54% 1032-892 (1924) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Underavg 59¢ | $545.85 | $8.26 | -$20.75 | 48% 2298-2502 (4800) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Underavg 60¢ | $31.8 | $2.65 | -$29.15 | 54% 211-181 (392) |
LR lryyyCTR<$100 | Underavg 5¢ | $0.55 | $0.55 | +$0 | 44% 431-541 (972) |
Invested
$479.59
Value
$673.07
PnL
+$193.48
Record
51%
2634-2567 (5201)
Invested
$281.41
Value
$267.61
PnL
-$13.8
Record
99%
175-2 (177)
Invested
$74.28
Value
$83.78
PnL
+$9.5
Record
41%
589-849 (1438)
Invested
$33.33
Value
$81.25
PnL
+$47.92
Record
47%
1704-1945 (3649)
Invested
$74.85
Value
$78.96
PnL
+$4.11
Record
87%
87-13 (100)
Invested
$14.09
Value
$33.07
PnL
+$18.98
Record
54%
1032-892 (1924)
Invested
$545.85
Value
$8.26
PnL
-$20.75
Record
48%
2298-2502 (4800)
Invested
$31.8
Value
$2.65
PnL
-$29.15
Record
54%
211-181 (392)
Invested
$0.55
Value
$0.55
PnL
+$0
Record
44%
431-541 (972)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.