Will Belarus win on 2026-11-12?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 87¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$1.2K
-$5
87.2¢ → 86.5¢
-1% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 80%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 80% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 12.2¢ | $357 | $358.09 | +$1.08 | 52% 49502-46467 (95969) |
NM NM-P | Yesavg 87¢ | $353.17 | $351.14 | -$2.03 | 57% 22806-16903 (39709) |
GC GC-P | Yesavg 87¢ | $353.17 | $351.14 | -$2.03 | 57% 22656-16901 (39557) |
AL Alegrandebig | Yesavg 88¢ | $175.94 | $172.94 | -$3 | 95% 3996-225 (4221) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 12¢ | $9.53 | $9.19 | -$0.34 | 51% 28824-28178 (57002) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Noavg 11¢ | $5.78 | $7.1 | +$1.31 | 48% 8399-8933 (17332) |
Invested
$357
Value
$358.09
PnL
+$1.08
Record
52%
49502-46467 (95969)
Invested
$353.17
Value
$351.14
PnL
-$2.03
Record
57%
22806-16903 (39709)
Invested
$353.17
Value
$351.14
PnL
-$2.03
Record
57%
22656-16901 (39557)
Invested
$175.94
Value
$172.94
PnL
-$3
Record
95%
3996-225 (4221)
Invested
$9.53
Value
$9.19
PnL
-$0.34
Record
51%
28824-28178 (57002)
Invested
$5.78
Value
$7.1
PnL
+$1.31
Record
48%
8399-8933 (17332)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.