Scotland vs. North Macedonia: O/U 2.5

6 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Over (38%) · Over at 62¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 13

Over62¢Under38¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 38%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$6.1K

Combined PnL

$273.72

Smart Money Entry

57.3¢ → 61.5¢

+7% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over62%

Under39%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$4.3K

Total Shares7,078

Combined PnL+$259.75

Under10 traders

Total Value$1.7K

Total Shares4,304

Combined PnL+$13.98

Over — 38%Under — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Overavg 57.3¢	$3.8K	$4.1K	+$246.76	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
GC GC-PCTR	Underavg 38¢	$513	$526.5	+$13.5	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-PCTR	Underavg 38¢	$486.89	$499.7	+$12.81	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 39.9¢	$294.2	$287.46	-$6.74	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
fyrskenCTR	Underavg 39¢	$234	$234	-$0	52% 46-43 (89)
KY Kyn008	Overavg 56¢	$125.72	$136.95	+$11.23	40% 137-202 (339)
GH ghorrockARB<$100	Underavg 39.1¢	$56.45	$56.52	+$0.07	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
└ Under leg	Underavg 39.1¢	$33.67	$33.19	-$0.48
└ Over leg	Overavg 60¢	$22.77	$23.33	+$0.55
38 38791873984189<$100	Overavg 61¢	$53.27	$53.21	-$0.06	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 42.4¢	$54.72	$50.36	-$4.36	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GO GoalLineGhost<$100	Overavg 58.2¢	$38.82	$40.7	+$1.88	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 38.5¢	$33.13	$33.54	+$0.41	56% 307-245 (552)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$22.55	$22.26	-$0.29	35% 735-1379 (2114)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$9.22	$9.1	-$0.12	34% 735-1404 (2139)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 44¢	$10.23	$9.07	-$1.16	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 39¢	$6.01	$5.93	-$0.08	35% 749-1385 (2134)
SU suntori<$100	Overavg 62¢	$4.72	$4.64	-$0.08	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
0xheavy888<$100	Overavg 61¢	$2.14	$2.16	+$0.02	53% 388-339 (727)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Over

Invested

$3,834

Value

$4.1K

PnL

+$246.76

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

GC-PCTR

Under

Invested

$513

Value

$526.5

PnL

+$13.5

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-PCTR

Under

Invested

$486.89

Value

$499.7

PnL

+$12.81

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$294.2

Value

$287.46

PnL

-$6.74

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

fyrskenCTR

Under

Invested

$234

Value

$234

PnL

-$0

Record

52%

46-43 (89)

Kyn008

Over

Invested

$125.72

Value

$136.95

PnL

+$11.23

Record

40%

137-202 (339)

ghorrockARB<$100

Under

Invested

$56.45

Value

$56.52

PnL

+$0.07

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Both legs:

Under$33.6739.1¢-$0.48

Over$22.7760¢+$0.55

38791873984189<$100

Over

Invested

$53.27

Value

$53.21

PnL

-$0.06

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$54.72

Value

$50.36

PnL

-$4.36

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

GoalLineGhost<$100

Over

Invested

$38.82

Value

$40.7

PnL

+$1.88

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$33.13

Value

$33.54

PnL

+$0.41

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$22.55

Value

$22.26

PnL

-$0.29

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

VenusianCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$9.22

Value

$9.1

PnL

-$0.12

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.23

Value

$9.07

PnL

-$1.16

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.01

Value

$5.93

PnL

-$0.08

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

suntori<$100

Over

Invested

$4.72

Value

$4.64

PnL

-$0.08

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

0xheavy888<$100

Over

Invested

$2.14

Value

$2.16

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

388-339 (727)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 16 top traders (38%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

9h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

36% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrOver 50% · 6

Aligned

Top 1000Under 64% · 14

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.