Spread: Scotland (-2.5)

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold North Macedonia (22%) · North Macedonia at 62¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 13

Scotland39¢North Macedonia61¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

North Macedonia

Consensus Traders

North Macedonia 22%

Total Value

$4.9K

Combined PnL

-$21.54

Smart Money Entry

62.4¢ → 61.5¢

-1% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralNorth Macedonia at 62%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

North Macedonia

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Scotland39%

North Macedonia62%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

North Macedonia2 traders

Total Value$3.1K

Total Shares4,993

Combined PnL-$55.55

Scotland7 traders

Total Value$1.8K

Total Shares4,786

Combined PnL+$34.01

North Macedonia — 22%Scotland — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on North Macedonia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrScotland 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Scotland 78% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
MU Multicoloured-Serf	North Macedoniaavg 61.9¢	$1.7K	$1.7K	-$9.5	49% 611-642 (1253)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	North Macedoniaavg 63¢	$1.5K	$1.4K	-$46.06	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Scotlandavg 37¢	$703.88	$731.9	+$28.02	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
LI LimousinCTR	Scotlandavg 38¢	$726.31	$726.31	+$0	35% 735-1379 (2114)
SE sentrioCTR	Scotlandavg 37¢	$158.74	$163.03	+$4.29	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Scotlandavg 38¢	$145.66	$145.66	+$0	36% 761-1361 (2122)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Scotlandavg 36.8¢	$37.12	$38.14	+$1.02	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Scotlandavg 38¢	$30.4	$30.8	+$0.4	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Scotlandavg 37¢	$10.39	$10.67	+$0.28	54% 1849-1555 (3404)

Multicoloured-Serf

North Macedonia

Invested

$1,663.76

Value

$1.7K

PnL

-$9.5

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

North Macedonia

Invested

$1,450.77

Value

$1.4K

PnL

-$46.06

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

FlaznorpCTR

Scotland

Invested

$703.88

Value

$731.9

PnL

+$28.02

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

LimousinCTR

Scotland

Invested

$726.31

Value

$726.31

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

sentrioCTR

Scotland

Invested

$158.74

Value

$163.03

PnL

+$4.29

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTimeCTR

Scotland

Invested

$145.66

Value

$145.66

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Scotland

Invested

$37.12

Value

$38.14

PnL

+$1.02

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Scotland

Invested

$30.4

Value

$30.8

PnL

+$0.4

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Scotland

Invested

$10.39

Value

$10.67

PnL

+$0.28

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

Research grade

NeutralNorth Macedonia at 62%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

North Macedonia

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-3 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

22% of non-arb traders are on North Macedonia. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrScotland 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Scotland 78% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that North Macedonia wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance63.7%

61.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$57.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

157.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.