Spread: Scotland (-1.5)

3 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Scotland (23%) · Scotland at 63¢ · $32K held · ends Nov 13

Scotland63¢North Macedonia37¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Scotland

Consensus Traders

Scotland 23%

Total Value

$31.9K

Combined PnL

$71.92

Smart Money Entry

61.8¢ → 62.5¢

+1% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralScotland at 63%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Scotland

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Scotland63%

North Macedonia38%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Scotland3 traders

Total Value$19.9K

Total Shares31,872

Combined PnL+$221.57

North Macedonia10 traders

Total Value$12.0K

Total Shares31,773

Combined PnL-$149.65

Scotland — 23%North Macedonia — 77%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Scotland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Macedonia 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000North Macedonia 77% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Scotlandavg 61.8¢	$19.7K	$19.9K	+$219.45	51% 2261-2214 (4475)
FL FlaznorpCTR	North Macedoniaavg 38.4¢	$5.2K	$5.1K	-$127.39	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
MU Multicoloured-SerfCTR	North Macedoniaavg 38¢	$4.2K	$4.2K	-$0	49% 611-642 (1253)
SE sentrioCTR	North Macedoniaavg 38.2¢	$1.1K	$1.1K	-$19.64	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	North Macedoniaavg 38¢	$755.71	$755.71	+$0	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	North Macedoniaavg 38¢	$375.96	$375.96	+$0	41% 91-132 (223)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR	North Macedoniaavg 38¢	$304	$304	-$0	22% 266-965 (1231)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	North Macedoniaavg 38.4¢	$42.67	$42.26	-$0.41	34% 735-1404 (2139)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	North Macedoniaavg 39¢	$65.15	$41.47	-$2.12	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
38 38791873984189	Scotlandavg 61¢	$127.2	$30	+$1.7	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	North Macedoniaavg 38¢	$27.74	$27.74	-$0	56% 307-245 (552)
SU suntori<$100	Scotlandavg 60.3¢	$11.17	$11.59	+$0.42	46% 2084-2445 (4529)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	North Macedoniaavg 38.4¢	$7.94	$7.85	-$0.09	36% 326-587 (913)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Scotland

Invested

$19,660.8

Value

$19.9K

PnL

+$219.45

Record

51%

2261-2214 (4475)

FlaznorpCTR

North Macedonia

Invested

$5,211.96

Value

$5.1K

PnL

-$127.39

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Multicoloured-SerfCTR

North Macedonia

Invested

$4,229.31

Value

$4.2K

PnL

-$0

Record

49%

611-642 (1253)

sentrioCTR

North Macedonia

Invested

$1,141.04

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$19.64

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

GoalLineGhostCTR

North Macedonia

Invested

$755.71

Value

$755.71

PnL

+$0

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

mouzsynapseCTR

North Macedonia

Invested

$375.96

Value

$375.96

PnL

+$0

Record

41%

91-132 (223)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080CTR

North Macedonia

Invested

$304

Value

$304

PnL

-$0

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

VenusianCTR<$100

North Macedonia

Invested

$42.67

Value

$42.26

PnL

-$0.41

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

ghorrockCTR<$100

North Macedonia

Invested

$65.15

Value

$41.47

PnL

-$2.12

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

38791873984189

Scotland

Invested

$127.2

Value

$30

PnL

+$1.7

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

North Macedonia

Invested

$27.74

Value

$27.74

PnL

-$0

Record

56%

307-245 (552)

suntori<$100

Scotland

Invested

$11.17

Value

$11.59

PnL

+$0.42

Record

46%

2084-2445 (4529)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

North Macedonia

Invested

$7.94

Value

$7.85

PnL

-$0.09

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

Research grade

NeutralScotland at 63%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Scotland

3 of 13 top traders (23%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

8h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

23% of non-arb traders are on Scotland. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNorth Macedonia 75% · 8

Diverging

Top 1000North Macedonia 77% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Scotland wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance64.7%

62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$54.66

Max Loss

-$100.00

154.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.