Romania vs. Poland: 1st Half O/U 0.5
4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 100¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 44%
$6.7K
$82.1
77.6¢ → 100¢
+29% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
DA dashattacker | Underavg 79.2¢ | $2.9K | $3.7K | +$763.48 | 64% 313-173 (486) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Overavg 37.1¢ | $2.5K | $2.5K | +$63.9 | 49% 3969-4117 (8086) |
 RN1CTR | Overavg 34.7¢ | $1.0K | $296.11 | -$723.02 | 55% 5404-4376 (9780) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 25.7¢ | $134.75 | $91.88 | -$42.88 | 48% 3239-3552 (6791) |
VE Venusian<$100 | Underavg 33¢ | $16.48 | $41.28 | +$24.8 | 37% 996-1715 (2711) |
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100 | Overavg 17¢ | $27.03 | $27.82 | +$0.79 | 36% 481-851 (1332) |
MA MadridTime<$100 | Underavg 32.8¢ | $28.48 | $23.47 | -$5.01 | 38% 1015-1688 (2703) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Overavg 72¢ | $3.6 | $3.65 | +$0.05 | 55% 502-403 (905) |
LI LightParadox<$100 | Underavg 43¢ | $2.15 | $2.13 | -$0.02 | 37% 1003-1721 (2724) |
Invested
$2,911.74
Value
$3.7K
PnL
+$763.48
Record
64%
313-173 (486)
Invested
$2,471.4
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$63.9
Record
49%
3969-4117 (8086)
RN1CTRInvested
$1,019.13
Value
$296.11
PnL
-$723.02
Record
55%
5404-4376 (9780)
Invested
$134.75
Value
$91.88
PnL
-$42.88
Record
48%
3239-3552 (6791)
Invested
$16.48
Value
$41.28
PnL
+$24.8
Record
37%
996-1715 (2711)
Invested
$27.03
Value
$27.82
PnL
+$0.79
Record
36%
481-851 (1332)
Invested
$28.48
Value
$23.47
PnL
-$5.01
Record
38%
1015-1688 (2703)
Invested
$3.6
Value
$3.65
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
502-403 (905)
Invested
$2.15
Value
$2.13
PnL
-$0.02
Record
37%
1003-1721 (2724)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.