Portugal vs. Denmark: O/U 0.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (67%) · Over at 96¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Over
9
Over 67%
$1.3K
$52.7
95.9¢ → 96.1¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralOver at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+20 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
13h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
63% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ZZ Zzzz87 | Overavg 95.9¢ | $767.18 | $766 | -$1.18 | 62% 93-58 (151) |
FL FlaznorpCTR | Underavg 3.2¢ | $162.22 | $206.44 | +$44.22 | 49% 3867-4029 (7896) |
HY hydra1248<$100 | Overavg 96.1¢ | $79.9 | $79.73 | -$0.17 | 75% 188-64 (252) |
38 38791873984189 | Overavg 96¢ | $236.67 | $72.66 | +$0.69 | 48% 3231-3545 (6776) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Overavg 96¢ | $70.18 | $70.13 | -$0.05 | 53% 2108-1855 (3963) |
DV dv-pm<$100 | Overavg 95¢ | $47.5 | $47.95 | +$0.45 | 44% 31-39 (70) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Overavg 95.9¢ | $30.94 | $31.01 | +$0.07 | 39% 3661-5820 (9481) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.3¢ | $23.79 | $29.91 | +$6.12 | 42% 1008-1381 (2389) |
OD OddstormCTR<$100 | Underavg 3.4¢ | $11.96 | $14.51 | +$2.55 | 32% 99-208 (307) |
Invested
$767.18
Value
$766
PnL
-$1.18
Record
62%
93-58 (151)
Invested
$162.22
Value
$206.44
PnL
+$44.22
Record
49%
3867-4029 (7896)
Invested
$79.9
Value
$79.73
PnL
-$0.17
Record
75%
188-64 (252)
Invested
$236.67
Value
$72.66
PnL
+$0.69
Record
48%
3231-3545 (6776)
Invested
$70.18
Value
$70.13
PnL
-$0.05
Record
53%
2108-1855 (3963)
Invested
$47.5
Value
$47.95
PnL
+$0.45
Record
44%
31-39 (70)
Invested
$30.94
Value
$31.01
PnL
+$0.07
Record
39%
3661-5820 (9481)
Invested
$23.79
Value
$29.91
PnL
+$6.12
Record
42%
1008-1381 (2389)
Invested
$11.96
Value
$14.51
PnL
+$2.55
Record
32%
99-208 (307)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.