Spread: Denmark (-2.5)

5 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold Portugal (36%) · Portugal at 94¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 14

Denmark6¢Portugal94¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Portugal

Consensus Traders

Portugal 36%

Total Value

$23.6K

Combined PnL

$709.93

Smart Money Entry

98.4¢ → 94¢

-4% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralPortugal at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Portugal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Denmark6%

Portugal94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Portugal5 traders

Total Value$20.0K

Total Shares20,047

Combined PnL+$65.26

Denmark9 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares190,756

Combined PnL+$644.67

Portugal — 36%Denmark — 64%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Portugalavg 98.5¢	$11.2K	$11.4K	+$153.12	53% 2162-1905 (4067)
BU BunCaCham	Portugalavg 98.1¢	$5.4K	$5.5K	+$16.66	92% 22-2 (24)
ZZ Zzzz87	Portugalavg 99¢	$2.6K	$2.5K	-$107.89	62% 95-59 (154)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Denmarkavg 1.6¢	$1.7K	$1.9K	+$203.86	48% 301-330 (631)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Denmarkavg 1.4¢	$621.76	$835.77	+$214	49% 3959-4107 (8066)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Portugalavg 98.2¢	$500.9	$500.39	-$0.5	39% 3675-5843 (9518)
VE VenusianCTR	Denmarkavg 1.6¢	$169.62	$228.16	+$58.54	37% 991-1715 (2706)
38 38791873984189	Portugalavg 98.2¢	$579.11	$200.72	+$3.87	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
MA MadridTimeCTR	Denmarkavg 1.8¢	$53.97	$156.26	+$102.29	38% 1014-1686 (2700)
LI LimousinCTR	Denmarkavg 1.5¢	$112.12	$154.84	+$42.71	36% 975-1701 (2676)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Denmarkavg 1.3¢	$114.31	$128.68	+$14.37	36% 477-850 (1327)
LI LightParadoxCTR	Denmarkavg 1.5¢	$106.98	$102.91	-$4.07	37% 1002-1720 (2722)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Denmarkavg 1.4¢	$6.57	$16.8	+$10.23	48% 2157-2304 (4461)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Denmarkavg 1.2¢	$6.61	$2.97	+$2.75	53% 1811-1610 (3421)

GoalLineGhost

Portugal

Invested

$11,248.66

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$153.12

Record

53%

2162-1905 (4067)

BunCaCham

Portugal

Invested

$5,449.46

Value

$5.5K

PnL

+$16.66

Record

92%

22-2 (24)

Zzzz87

Portugal

Invested

$2,574

Value

$2.5K

PnL

-$107.89

Record

62%

95-59 (154)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Denmark

Invested

$1,727.08

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$203.86

Record

48%

301-330 (631)

FlaznorpCTR

Denmark

Invested

$621.76

Value

$835.77

PnL

+$214

Record

49%

3959-4107 (8066)

xtxpleasecallme

Portugal

Invested

$500.9

Value

$500.39

PnL

-$0.5

Record

39%

3675-5843 (9518)

VenusianCTR

Denmark

Invested

$169.62

Value

$228.16

PnL

+$58.54

Record

37%

991-1715 (2706)

38791873984189

Portugal

Invested

$579.11

Value

$200.72

PnL

+$3.87

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

MadridTimeCTR

Denmark

Invested

$53.97

Value

$156.26

PnL

+$102.29

Record

38%

1014-1686 (2700)

LimousinCTR

Denmark

Invested

$112.12

Value

$154.84

PnL

+$42.71

Record

36%

975-1701 (2676)

LuckyLooCTR

Denmark

Invested

$114.31

Value

$128.68

PnL

+$14.37

Record

36%

477-850 (1327)

LightParadoxCTR

Denmark

Invested

$106.98

Value

$102.91

PnL

-$4.07

Record

37%

1002-1720 (2722)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

$6.57

Value

$16.8

PnL

+$10.23

Record

48%

2157-2304 (4461)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Denmark

Invested

$6.61

Value

$2.97

PnL

+$2.75

Record

53%

1811-1610 (3421)

Research grade

NeutralPortugal at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Portugal

5 of 14 top traders (36%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Portugal wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance95.3%

94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$4.95

Max Loss

-$100.00

104.9

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.