Portugal vs. Denmark: 1st Half O/U 0.5

14 of 21 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 76¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 14

Over25¢Under75¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$12.3K

Combined PnL

$3.0K

Smart Money Entry

39.7¢ → 75.5¢

+90% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over25%

Under76%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under14 traders

Total Value$10.3K

Total Shares16,337

Combined PnL+$3.1K

Over7 traders

Total Value$1.6K

Total Shares2,645

Combined PnL-$118.03

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 40.4¢	$3.1K	$4.4K	+$1.4K	49% 3969-4117 (8086)
VE Venusian	Underavg 24.1¢	$878.89	$1.6K	+$743.68	37% 996-1715 (2711)
LI Limousin	Underavg 32.1¢	$594.87	$1.4K	+$805.7	36% 979-1704 (2683)
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR	Overavg 66¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	-$10	10% 7-64 (71)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 72.5¢	$754.77	$676.34	-$78.42	64% 313-173 (486)
SM Smallcoins	Underavg 62.3¢	$441.82	$535.15	+$93.33	4% 9-230 (239)
UE uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9	Underavg 73¢	$505.38	$522.67	+$17.29	61% 52-33 (85)
RN1	Underavg 32¢	$456.66	$502.37	+$45.7	55% 5404-4376 (9780)
TO topdogbigboiARB<$100	Overavg 28.2¢	$271.95	$286.19	+$14.25	37% 1063-1799 (2862)
└ Under leg	Underavg 61¢	$122	$148	+$26
└ Over leg	Overavg 28.2¢	$149.95	$138.19	-$11.75
LI LightParadox	Underavg 34.9¢	$141.75	$243.52	+$101.77	37% 1003-1721 (2724)
38 38791873984189ARB<$100	Overavg 36.2¢	$446.54	$206.08	-$0.76	48% 3239-3552 (6791)
└ Over leg	Overavg 36.2¢	$183.84	$132.02	-$79.53
└ Under leg	Underavg 49.6¢	$49.61	$74.06	+$78.77
ZaiZoiBele	Underavg 62¢	$212.1	$189.87	-$22.24	22% 65-235 (300)
BE BetyourselfCTR	Overavg 63¢	$249.6	$176.3	-$73.3	86% 31-5 (36)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 31.4¢	$30.84	$74.18	+$43.34	48% 2164-2307 (4471)
MA MadridTime<$100	Underavg 33¢	$57.01	$38.01	-$19	38% 1015-1688 (2703)
NO NordhavenCapCTR<$100	Overavg 33.7¢	$36.47	$30.81	-$5.66	31% 104-232 (336)
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100	Overavg 47¢	$17.68	$16.74	-$0.94	26% 61-178 (239)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 28.5¢	$14.84	$13.52	-$1.32	47% 993-1122 (2115)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR<$100	Overavg 88.9¢	$40	$12.83	-$27.18	99% 480-7 (487)
SN SnakeBall<$100	Underavg 22¢	$8.46	$8.46	+$0	47% 936-1037 (1973)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 22¢	$5.08	$5.08	-$0	42% 1031-1416 (2447)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 72¢	$4.32	$4.68	+$0.36	45% 679-837 (1516)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 21.5¢	$3.68	$3.76	+$0.09	53% 1815-1613 (3428)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$3,083.77

Value

$4.4K

PnL

+$1.4K

Record

49%

3969-4117 (8086)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$878.89

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$743.68

Record

37%

996-1715 (2711)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$594.87

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$805.7

Record

36%

979-1704 (2683)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR

Over

Invested

$1,319.99

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$10

Record

10%

7-64 (71)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$754.77

Value

$676.34

PnL

-$78.42

Record

64%

313-173 (486)

Smallcoins

Under

Invested

$441.82

Value

$535.15

PnL

+$93.33

Record

9-230 (239)

uehehe7haha2hihia3jkst9

Under

Invested

$505.38

Value

$522.67

PnL

+$17.29

Record

61%

52-33 (85)

RN1

Under

Invested

$456.66

Value

$502.37

PnL

+$45.7

Record

55%

5404-4376 (9780)

topdogbigboiARB<$100

Over

Invested

$271.95

Value

$286.19

PnL

+$14.25

Record

37%

1063-1799 (2862)

Both legs:

Under$12261¢+$26

Over$149.9528.2¢-$11.75

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$141.75

Value

$243.52

PnL

+$101.77

Record

37%

1003-1721 (2724)

38791873984189ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$446.54

Value

$206.08

PnL

-$0.76

Record

48%

3239-3552 (6791)

Both legs:

Over$183.8436.2¢-$79.53

Under$49.6149.6¢+$78.77

ZaiZoiBele

Under

Invested

$212.1

Value

$189.87

PnL

-$22.24

Record

22%

65-235 (300)

BetyourselfCTR

Over

Invested

$249.6

Value

$176.3

PnL

-$73.3

Record

86%

31-5 (36)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$30.84

Value

$74.18

PnL

+$43.34

Record

48%

2164-2307 (4471)

MadridTime<$100

Under

Invested

$57.01

Value

$38.01

PnL

-$19

Record

38%

1015-1688 (2703)

NordhavenCapCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.47

Value

$30.81

PnL

-$5.66

Record

31%

104-232 (336)

0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$17.68

Value

$16.74

PnL

-$0.94

Record

26%

61-178 (239)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$14.84

Value

$13.52

PnL

-$1.32

Record

47%

993-1122 (2115)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$40

Value

$12.83

PnL

-$27.18

Record

99%

480-7 (487)

SnakeBall<$100

Under

Invested

$8.46

Value

$8.46

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

936-1037 (1973)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$5.08

Value

$5.08

PnL

-$0

Record

42%

1031-1416 (2447)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.32

Value

$4.68

PnL

+$0.36

Record

45%

679-837 (1516)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.68

Value

$3.76

PnL

+$0.09

Record

53%

1815-1613 (3428)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 76%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

14 of 21 top traders (67%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

100% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 100% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance77.4%

75.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$29.20

Max Loss

-$100.00

129.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.