Norway vs. Wales: O/U 1.5

2 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Over (22%) · Over at 88¢ · $18K held · ends Nov 14

Over88¢Under12¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 22%

Total Value

$18.0K

Combined PnL

$54.36

Smart Money Entry

89¢ → 87.5¢

-2% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over88%

Under13%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over2 traders

Total Value$15.1K

Total Shares17,076

Combined PnL-$81.75

Under7 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares24,926

Combined PnL+$136.11

Over — 22%Under — 78%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ZZ Zzzz87	Overavg 89¢	$15.1K	$15.1K	-$81.43	61% 87-55 (142)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR	Underavg 11.2¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$34.86	48% 285-304 (589)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 11.3¢	$646.18	$714.17	+$67.99	49% 3800-3964 (7764)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Underavg 11¢	$501.55	$524.35	+$22.8	53% 2076-1824 (3900)
MO mouzsynapseCTR	Underavg 11¢	$180.71	$188.93	+$8.21	40% 115-174 (289)
SE sentrioCTR	Underavg 11.4¢	$106.22	$107.25	+$1.03	42% 988-1357 (2345)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 11.3¢	$56.65	$57.71	+$1.06	48% 3195-3498 (6693)
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100	Overavg 88¢	$55.65	$55.33	-$0.32	39% 3638-5769 (9407)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 11.3¢	$10.42	$10.58	+$0.15	52% 1708-1554 (3262)

Zzzz87

Over

Invested

$15,137.94

Value

$15.1K

PnL

-$81.43

Record

61%

87-55 (142)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR

Under

Invested

$1,285.8

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$34.86

Record

48%

285-304 (589)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$646.18

Value

$714.17

PnL

+$67.99

Record

49%

3800-3964 (7764)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Under

Invested

$501.55

Value

$524.35

PnL

+$22.8

Record

53%

2076-1824 (3900)

mouzsynapseCTR

Under

Invested

$180.71

Value

$188.93

PnL

+$8.21

Record

40%

115-174 (289)

sentrioCTR

Under

Invested

$106.22

Value

$107.25

PnL

+$1.03

Record

42%

988-1357 (2345)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$56.65

Value

$57.71

PnL

+$1.06

Record

48%

3195-3498 (6693)

xtxpleasecallme<$100

Over

Invested

$55.65

Value

$55.33

PnL

-$0.32

Record

39%

3638-5769 (9407)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$10.42

Value

$10.58

PnL

+$0.15

Record

52%

1708-1554 (3262)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 88%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Over

2 of 9 top traders (22%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

1 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

13% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 88% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance89.0%

87.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$12.35

Max Loss

-$100.00

112.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.