Norway vs. Wales: O/U 0.5

1 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (10%) · Over at 98¢ · $450 held · ends Nov 14

Over98¢Under2¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 10%

Total Value

$450.35

Combined PnL

$8.79

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over98%

Under2%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over1 trader

Total Value$257.75

Total Shares264

Combined PnL+$0.2

Under9 traders

Total Value$192.6

Total Shares7,524

Combined PnL+$8.58

Over — 10%Under — 90%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 97.6¢	$257.54	$257.75	+$0.2	39% 3649-5778 (9427)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 2.2¢	$127.71	$132.47	+$4.76	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 2.2¢	$16.42	$20.81	+$4.38	42% 995-1363 (2358)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 2.4¢	$14.02	$13.3	-$0.72	37% 960-1662 (2622)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Underavg 2.3¢	$18.71	$10.48	+$0.45	48% 3214-3513 (6727)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 2.5¢	$7.72	$7.36	-$0.36	37% 970-1635 (2605)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 2.3¢	$3.85	$3.98	+$0.13	36% 933-1644 (2577)
FO Forecastication2CTR<$100	Underavg 2.4¢	$3.12	$3.06	-$0.06	45% 260-317 (577)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100	Underavg 2¢	$0.65	$0.69	+$0.03	53% 2085-1830 (3915)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$0.49	$0.45	-$0.03	52% 1721-1568 (3289)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$257.54

Value

$257.75

PnL

+$0.2

Record

39%

3649-5778 (9427)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$127.71

Value

$132.47

PnL

+$4.76

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.42

Value

$20.81

PnL

+$4.38

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$14.02

Value

$13.3

PnL

-$0.72

Record

37%

960-1662 (2622)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$18.71

Value

$10.48

PnL

+$0.45

Record

48%

3214-3513 (6727)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.72

Value

$7.36

PnL

-$0.36

Record

37%

970-1635 (2605)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.85

Value

$3.98

PnL

+$0.13

Record

36%

933-1644 (2577)

Forecastication2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.12

Value

$3.06

PnL

-$0.06

Record

45%

260-317 (577)

GoalLineGhostCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.65

Value

$0.69

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

2085-1830 (3915)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.49

Value

$0.45

PnL

-$0.03

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 98%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

1 of 10 top traders (10%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance98.7%

97.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1.30

Max Loss

-$100.00

101.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.