Norway vs. Wales: 1st Half O/U 0.5

11 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (58%) · Under at 100¢ · $26K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 58%

Total Value

$26.0K

Combined PnL

$7.3K

Smart Money Entry

53.8¢ → 100¢

+86% since entry · 11 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under11 traders

Total Value$24.5K

Total Shares24,476

Combined PnL+$10.1K

Over8 traders

Total Value$1.5K

Total Shares8,144

Combined PnL$-2.8K

Under — 58%Over — 42%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 85.6¢	$9.1K	$10.6K	+$1.5K	64% 303-171 (474)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 29.7¢	$3.5K	$7.4K	+$3.9K	49% 3867-4029 (7896)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 25.9¢	$846.03	$3.1K	+$2.2K	37% 977-1669 (2646)
RN1CTR	Overavg 28.2¢	$1.7K	$1.3K	-$425.5	55% 5380-4339 (9719)
SN SnakeBall	Underavg 18¢	$177.66	$986.5	+$808.84	48% 912-1002 (1914)
LI Limousin	Underavg 32.5¢	$337.75	$920.47	+$674.55	36% 950-1657 (2607)
VE Venusian	Underavg 27.8¢	$270.87	$892.66	+$667.28	37% 968-1674 (2642)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 44.4¢	$114.9	$253.31	+$138.42	37% 985-1642 (2627)
LU LuckyLooCTR	Overavg 31.3¢	$139.77	$158.69	+$18.93	36% 455-810 (1265)
dips.	Underavg 93¢	$99.51	$106.95	+$7.44	47% 973-1108 (2081)
NO NotJump	Underavg 86.3¢	$103.2	$104.96	+$1.76	52% 833-779 (1612)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 26.9¢	$21.72	$80.63	+$58.91	48% 2109-2267 (4376)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 18¢	$4.84	$26.89	+$22.04	53% 1809-1607 (3416)
OM omnibus-076daaCTR	Overavg 81¢	$100.39	$16.12	-$84.27	46% 497-591 (1088)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 20¢	$394.18	$5.77	-$170.28	48% 3231-3545 (6776)
0X 0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR	Overavg 82¢	$1.5K	$0.91	$-1.5K	10% 7-64 (71)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 79¢	$3.95	$0.65	-$3.3	55% 474-384 (858)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 59.8¢	$592.29	$0.49	-$591.79	46% 2702-3200 (5902)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$36.07	$0.23	-$35.85	37% 1039-1757 (2796)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$9,119.72

Value

$10.6K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

64%

303-171 (474)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$3,467.11

Value

$7.4K

PnL

+$3.9K

Record

49%

3867-4029 (7896)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$846.03

Value

$3.1K

PnL

+$2.2K

Record

37%

977-1669 (2646)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,725.25

Value

$1.3K

PnL

-$425.5

Record

55%

5380-4339 (9719)

SnakeBall

Under

Invested

$177.66

Value

$986.5

PnL

+$808.84

Record

48%

912-1002 (1914)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$337.75

Value

$920.47

PnL

+$674.55

Record

36%

950-1657 (2607)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$270.87

Value

$892.66

PnL

+$667.28

Record

37%

968-1674 (2642)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$114.9

Value

$253.31

PnL

+$138.42

Record

37%

985-1642 (2627)

LuckyLooCTR

Over

Invested

$139.77

Value

$158.69

PnL

+$18.93

Record

36%

455-810 (1265)

dips.

Under

Invested

$99.51

Value

$106.95

PnL

+$7.44

Record

47%

973-1108 (2081)

NotJump

Under

Invested

$103.2

Value

$104.96

PnL

+$1.76

Record

52%

833-779 (1612)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$21.72

Value

$80.63

PnL

+$58.91

Record

48%

2109-2267 (4376)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$4.84

Value

$26.89

PnL

+$22.04

Record

53%

1809-1607 (3416)

omnibus-076daaCTR

Over

Invested

$100.39

Value

$16.12

PnL

-$84.27

Record

46%

497-591 (1088)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$394.18

Value

$5.77

PnL

-$170.28

Record

48%

3231-3545 (6776)

0xB985b597F5598a975C42032749386D765826B70d-1781959038065CTR

Over

Invested

$1,489.42

Value

$0.91

PnL

$-1.5K

Record

10%

7-64 (71)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.95

Value

$0.65

PnL

-$3.3

Record

55%

474-384 (858)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$592.29

Value

$0.49

PnL

-$591.79

Record

46%

2702-3200 (5902)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$36.07

Value

$0.23

PnL

-$35.85

Record

37%

1039-1757 (2796)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

11 of 19 top traders (58%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-4 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

1h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

63% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

sniperOver 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrUnder 67% · 12

Aligned

Top 1000Under 63% · 16

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.