Netherlands vs. Greece: O/U 0.5

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Over (30%) · Over at 96¢ · $775 held · ends Nov 13

Over96¢Under4¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 30%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$775.46

Combined PnL

-$4.72

Smart Money Entry

96.2¢ → 96.2¢

+0% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over96%

Under4%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$608.36

Total Shares629

Combined PnL+$0.78

Under7 traders

Total Value$47.45

Total Shares1,343

Combined PnL-$5.49

Over — 30%Under — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-59 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Overavg 96¢	$329.74	$330.43	+$0.69	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Overavg 96.3¢	$270.56	$270.19	-$0.38	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 4¢	$130.83	$119.66	-$11.17	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
└ Under leg	Underavg 4¢	$93.79	$82.07	-$11.72
└ Over leg	Overavg 95¢	$37.04	$37.59	+$0.55
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Underavg 3¢	$16.5	$19.25	+$2.75	47% 189-212 (401)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$11.39	$7.97	-$3.42	36% 761-1361 (2122)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 96.1¢	$222.08	$7.74	+$0.47	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Underavg 4¢	$6.69	$5.85	-$0.84	43% 808-1065 (1873)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$7.06	$4.94	-$2.12	35% 735-1379 (2114)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Underavg 3.6¢	$3.73	$3.94	+$0.21	36% 326-587 (913)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Underavg 5¢	$5.26	$3.68	-$1.58	48% 677-745 (1422)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Underavg 4.6¢	$2.82	$1.81	-$0.51	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

GoalLineGhost

Over

Invested

$329.74

Value

$330.43

PnL

+$0.69

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

xtxpleasecallme

Over

Invested

$270.56

Value

$270.19

PnL

-$0.38

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$130.83

Value

$119.66

PnL

-$11.17

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Both legs:

Under$93.794¢-$11.72

Over$37.0495¢+$0.55

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$16.5

Value

$19.25

PnL

+$2.75

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$11.39

Value

$7.97

PnL

-$3.42

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$222.08

Value

$7.74

PnL

+$0.47

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$6.69

Value

$5.85

PnL

-$0.84

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

LimousinCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.06

Value

$4.94

PnL

-$2.12

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$3.73

Value

$3.94

PnL

+$0.21

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$5.26

Value

$3.68

PnL

-$1.58

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.82

Value

$1.81

PnL

-$0.51

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 96%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Over

3 of 10 top traders (30%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-59 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 100% · 6

Diverging

Top 1000Under 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.3%

96.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.74

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.