Exact Score: Netherlands 0 - 1 Greece?

6 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (43%) · No at 97¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 13

Yes4¢No96¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 43%

Total Value

$1.3K

Combined PnL

-$9.95

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 96.5¢

+1% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes4%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.1K

Total Shares1,072

Combined PnL-$2.73

Yes8 traders

Total Value$189.42

Total Shares5,460

Combined PnL-$7.22

No — 43%Yes — 57%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 96.7¢	$352.22	$352.11	-$0.11	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 95.3¢	$315.89	$313.54	-$2.36	48% 677-745 (1422)
LI Limousin	Noavg 95.7¢	$231.12	$231.21	+$0.09	35% 735-1379 (2114)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 3.9¢	$148.12	$133.69	-$14.42	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE Venusian	Noavg 96¢	$101.3	$99.52	-$1.78	34% 735-1404 (2139)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96.5¢	$101.39	$53.41	+$1.38	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 4¢	$29.95	$27.22	-$2.73	43% 808-1065 (1873)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 96.5¢	$22.7	$22.74	+$0.04	36% 761-1361 (2122)
LO lovedudleyCTR<$100	Yesavg 2.7¢	$27.03	$12.73	+$12.2	21% 16-61 (77)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$7.19	$6.22	-$0.97	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.7¢	$7.1	$6.14	-$0.96	33% 251-499 (750)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$2.57	$2.36	-$0.21	49% 1668-1706 (3374)
DV dv-pmCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.9¢	$0.78	$0.64	-$0.14	40% 17-26 (43)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.2¢	$0.4	$0.42	+$0.02	53% 1326-1186 (2512)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$352.22

Value

$352.11

PnL

-$0.11

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

SnakeBall

Invested

$315.89

Value

$313.54

PnL

-$2.36

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

Limousin

Invested

$231.12

Value

$231.21

PnL

+$0.09

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$148.12

Value

$133.69

PnL

-$14.42

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Venusian

Invested

$101.3

Value

$99.52

PnL

-$1.78

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

38791873984189

Invested

$101.39

Value

$53.41

PnL

+$1.38

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$29.95

Value

$27.22

PnL

-$2.73

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$22.7

Value

$22.74

PnL

+$0.04

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

lovedudleyCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$27.03

Value

$12.73

PnL

+$12.2

Record

21%

16-61 (77)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.19

Value

$6.22

PnL

-$0.97

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.1

Value

$6.14

PnL

-$0.96

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.57

Value

$2.36

PnL

-$0.21

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

dv-pmCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.78

Value

$0.64

PnL

-$0.14

Record

40%

17-26 (43)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.4

Value

$0.42

PnL

+$0.02

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 14 top traders (43%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

-2 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 82%

Freshness

Fresh

6h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

31% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 82% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 57% · 7

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 69% · 13

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.6%

96.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.44

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.4

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.