Will Northern Ireland win on 2026-11-14?
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 63¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
8
No 75%
$1.4K
-$4.52
60.5¢ → 62.5¢
+3% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Mature
37h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 59¢ | $477.7 | $505.83 | +$28.13 | 50% 3544-3611 (7155) |
GC GC-P | Noavg 62¢ | $331.74 | $334.42 | +$2.68 | 36% 319-557 (876) |
 fyrskenCTR | Yesavg 41¢ | $328 | $296 | -$32 | 51% 50-49 (99) |
NM NM-P | Noavg 62¢ | $102.56 | $102.56 | +$0 | 59% 3728-2540 (6268) |
DA darkumbreon88CTR<$100 | Yesavg 39¢ | $84.88 | $80.53 | -$4.35 | 62% 1024-638 (1662) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 61.4¢ | $63.28 | $63.85 | +$0.57 | 56% 426-340 (766) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $15.04 | $15.02 | -$0.03 | 53% 1572-1421 (2993) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $9.44 | $9.92 | +$0.48 | 49% 1883-1987 (3870) |
Invested
$477.7
Value
$505.83
PnL
+$28.13
Record
50%
3544-3611 (7155)
Invested
$331.74
Value
$334.42
PnL
+$2.68
Record
36%
319-557 (876)
fyrskenCTRInvested
$328
Value
$296
PnL
-$32
Record
51%
50-49 (99)
Invested
$102.56
Value
$102.56
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3728-2540 (6268)
Invested
$84.88
Value
$80.53
PnL
-$4.35
Record
62%
1024-638 (1662)
Invested
$63.28
Value
$63.85
PnL
+$0.57
Record
56%
426-340 (766)
Invested
$15.04
Value
$15.02
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
1572-1421 (2993)
Invested
$9.44
Value
$9.92
PnL
+$0.48
Record
49%
1883-1987 (3870)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.