Montenegro leading at halftime?

10 of 14 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 100¢ · $66K held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 71%

Total Value

$66.3K

Combined PnL

$26.23

Smart Money Entry

55.5¢ → 100¢

+80% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No10 traders

Total Value$66.2K

Total Shares66,266

Combined PnL+$29.0K

Yes4 traders

Total Value$41.34

Total Shares63,506

Combined PnL$-29.0K

No — 71%Yes — 29%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465	Noavg 53.2¢	$21.9K	$41.2K	+$19.3K	51% 3779-3579 (7358)
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 60¢	$6.8K	$11.4K	+$4.5K	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 54.2¢	$1.9K	$2.8K	+$919.4	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
VE Venusian	Noavg 59¢	$1.6K	$2.7K	+$1.1K	32% 565-1192 (1757)
RN1	Noavg 60¢	$1.5K	$2.5K	+$947.38	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
LI Limousin	Noavg 51.1¢	$986.85	$1.9K	+$941.79	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 59¢	$1.1K	$1.9K	+$768.69	33% 585-1187 (1772)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 78.3¢	$1.2K	$1.5K	+$321.86	34% 592-1164 (1756)
FE ferdinand2	Noavg 56.7¢	$230.1	$405.6	+$175.5	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
KL Kl1023yxCTR	Yesavg 46.1¢	$28.7K	$31.17	$-28.7K	— 5-4 (9)
SE sentrio<$100	Noavg 44¢	$5.77	$12.06	+$6.29	41% 589-849 (1438)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 12¢	$64.07	$5.71	-$22.02	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Yesavg 56¢	$31.92	$3.99	-$27.93	54% 211-181 (392)
SU suntoriCTR	Yesavg 25¢	$237.8	$0.48	-$237.32	47% 1704-1945 (3649)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465

Invested

$21,928.46

Value

$41.2K

PnL

+$19.3K

Record

51%

3779-3579 (7358)

Flaznorp

Invested

$6,811.71

Value

$11.4K

PnL

+$4.5K

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$1,876.77

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$919.4

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

Venusian

Invested

$1,570.55

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$1.1K

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

RN1

Invested

$1,535.09

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$947.38

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

Limousin

Invested

$986.85

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$941.79

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,107.52

Value

$1.9K

PnL

+$768.69

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

MadridTime

Invested

$1,164.55

Value

$1.5K

PnL

+$321.86

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ferdinand2

Invested

$230.1

Value

$405.6

PnL

+$175.5

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

Kl1023yxCTR

Yes

Invested

$28,733.93

Value

$31.17

PnL

$-28.7K

Record

—

5-4 (9)

sentrio<$100

Invested

$5.77

Value

$12.06

PnL

+$6.29

Record

41%

589-849 (1438)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$64.07

Value

$5.71

PnL

-$22.02

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$31.92

Value

$3.99

PnL

-$27.93

Record

54%

211-181 (392)

suntoriCTR

Yes

Invested

$237.8

Value

$0.48

PnL

-$237.32

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

10 of 14 top traders (71%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+11 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

12h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 71% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 71% · 14

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.