Montenegro vs. Latvia: 1st Half O/U 1.5

4 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (44%) · Under at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 44%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$40.68

Smart Money Entry

91.4¢ → 100¢

+9% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under4 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,937

Combined PnL+$94.97

Over5 traders

Total Value$22.75

Total Shares1,068

Combined PnL-$135.66

Under — 44%Over — 56%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 80.4¢	$644.42	$713.27	+$68.85	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
ARTEM-DZYUBA	Underavg 99.1¢	$495.5	$499.75	+$4.25	83% 415-84 (499)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 96¢	$480	$499.75	+$19.75	62% 239-149 (388)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$221.49	$223.62	+$2.13	99% 263-4 (267)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$69.79	$21	-$48.79	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$8.04	$0.92	-$7.12	34% 592-1164 (1756)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Overavg 35¢	$4.94	$0.56	-$4.38	54% 1032-892 (1924)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Overavg 15.3¢	$59.29	$0.19	-$59.1	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 11¢	$16.35	$0.07	-$16.27	35% 221-416 (637)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$644.42

Value

$713.27

PnL

+$68.85

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

ARTEM-DZYUBA

Under

Invested

$495.5

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$4.25

Record

83%

415-84 (499)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$480

Value

$499.75

PnL

+$19.75

Record

62%

239-149 (388)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$221.49

Value

$223.62

PnL

+$2.13

Record

99%

263-4 (267)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$69.79

Value

$21

PnL

-$48.79

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$8.04

Value

$0.92

PnL

-$7.12

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.94

Value

$0.56

PnL

-$4.38

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$59.29

Value

$0.19

PnL

-$59.1

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.35

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$16.27

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Under

4 of 9 top traders (44%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

44% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 3

Aligned

ctrOver 100% · 3

Diverging

Hand-pickedOver 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Over 56% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.