Montenegro vs. Latvia: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Under (50%) · Under at 100¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 12

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 50%

Total Value

$10.2K

Combined PnL

$1.0K

Smart Money Entry

78.1¢ → 100¢

+28% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,197

Combined PnL+$1.5K

Over5 traders

Total Value$972.03

Total Shares6,042

Combined PnL-$512.23

Under — 50%Over — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 88¢	$6.3K	$7.1K	+$855	62% 239-149 (388)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 42.7¢	$1.1K	$1.3K	+$272.57	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
RN1CTR	Overavg 13.8¢	$1.3K	$966.5	-$363.89	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
LI Limousin	Underavg 34.1¢	$182.84	$535.88	+$353.04	33% 563-1169 (1732)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$142.41	$143.78	+$1.37	99% 263-4 (267)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 34¢	$19.45	$41.99	+$34.54	49% 1307-1343 (2650)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 14.1¢	$116.76	$5.41	-$111.35	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 8¢	$12	$0.08	-$11.93	48% 590-645 (1235)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 24.6¢	$22.2	$0.05	-$22.15	35% 221-416 (637)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 44¢	$2.92	$0	-$2.92	47% 1704-1945 (3649)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$6,267.9

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$855

Record

62%

239-149 (388)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,077.05

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$272.57

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

RN1CTR

Over

Invested

$1,330.39

Value

$966.5

PnL

-$363.89

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$182.84

Value

$535.88

PnL

+$353.04

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$142.41

Value

$143.78

PnL

+$1.37

Record

99%

263-4 (267)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$19.45

Value

$41.99

PnL

+$34.54

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$116.76

Value

$5.41

PnL

-$111.35

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$11.93

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$22.2

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$22.15

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.92

Value

PnL

-$2.92

Record

47%

1704-1945 (3649)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 10 top traders (50%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 92%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

56% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 92% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrOver 75% · 4

Diverging

Top 1000Under 56% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.