Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: O/U 4.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 100¢ · $12K held · ended Nov 13

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

Total Value

$12.5K

Combined PnL

-$361.81

Smart Money Entry

97¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

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Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$12.3K

Total Shares12,220

Combined PnL-$253.03

Over6 traders

Total Value$154.38

Total Shares4,120

Combined PnL-$108.78

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 97¢	$6.0K	$5.8K	-$207.85	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 95.7¢	$2.7K	$2.8K	+$27.98	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
PV pvc975	Underavg 99.9¢	$2.5K	$2.5K	+$1.27	99% 258-3 (261)
RN1	Underavg 96.8¢	$745.82	$594.65	-$151.16	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
SU suntori	Underavg 89.2¢	$982.84	$452.66	+$76.99	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
CI cigarettes<$100	Underavg 91.9¢	$77.72	$77.93	+$0.21	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
FO fooooolCTR	Overavg 8¢	$148.33	$68.45	-$79.88	39% 37-59 (96)
poshposh<$100	Underavg 95.7¢	$47.83	$47.36	-$0.47	47% 786-902 (1688)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 5.2¢	$60.25	$44.99	-$15.26	36% 326-587 (913)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 5¢	$181.49	$19.31	-$13.58	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$16.14	$16.68	+$0.54	43% 809-1065 (1874)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Overavg 4.8¢	$4.54	$4.92	+$0.38	48% 677-745 (1422)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 2.4¢	$1	$0.02	-$0.98	49% 1669-1706 (3375)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$6,015.63

Value

$5.8K

PnL

-$207.85

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,747.85

Value

$2.8K

PnL

+$27.98

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

pvc975

Under

Invested

$2,546.65

Value

$2.5K

PnL

+$1.27

Record

99%

258-3 (261)

RN1

Under

Invested

$745.82

Value

$594.65

PnL

-$151.16

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

suntori

Under

Invested

$982.84

Value

$452.66

PnL

+$76.99

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

cigarettes<$100

Under

Invested

$77.72

Value

$77.93

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

fooooolCTR

Over

Invested

$148.33

Value

$68.45

PnL

-$79.88

Record

39%

37-59 (96)

poshposh<$100

Under

Invested

$47.83

Value

$47.36

PnL

-$0.47

Record

47%

786-902 (1688)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$60.25

Value

$44.99

PnL

-$15.26

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$181.49

Value

$19.31

PnL

-$13.58

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.14

Value

$16.68

PnL

+$0.54

Record

43%

809-1065 (1874)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.54

Value

$4.92

PnL

+$0.38

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$0.98

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.