Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (100%). 4 of 10 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: Draw at halftime?

4 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (40%) · Yes at 0.1¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 40%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$1.4K

Combined PnL

-$438.7

Smart Money Entry

47.9¢ → 0.1¢

-100% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$496.03

Total Shares2,314

Combined PnL-$612.47

No6 traders

Total Value$149.92

Total Shares430

Combined PnL+$173.78

Yes — 40%No — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Noavg 33¢	$611.89	$800.66	+$188.77	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
└ No leg	Noavg 33¢	$586.99	$462.11	-$124.88
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 5.4¢	$24.9	$338.55	+$313.65
CI cigarettesCTR	Yesavg 1¢	$6.59	$487.87	+$481.27	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 30.8¢	$201.87	$91.49	+$180.03	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100	Noavg 99¢	$33	$33.16	+$0.17	98% 343-6 (349)
PV pvc975<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$17.48	$17.49	+$0.01	99% 258-3 (261)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Yesavg 48¢	$4.76	$7.34	+$2.58	46% 2104-2463 (4567)
SL SlickRick123<$100	Noavg 39¢	$6.47	$4.31	-$2.16	32% 291-613 (904)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 52¢	$2.89	$2.16	-$0.72	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 97¢	$4.85	$1.3	-$3.55	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 71.9¢	$1.1K	$0.76	$-1.1K	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 7¢	$9.17	$0.07	-$9.1	35% 750-1386 (2136)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Invested

$611.89

Value

$800.66

PnL

+$188.77

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Both legs:

Invested

$6.59

Value

$487.87

PnL

+$481.27

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

38791873984189

Invested

$201.87

Value

$91.49

PnL

+$180.03

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105<$100

Invested

$33

Value

$33.16

PnL

+$0.17

Record

98%

343-6 (349)

pvc975<$100

Invested

$17.48

Value

$17.49

PnL

+$0.01

Record

99%

258-3 (261)

suntoriCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.76

Value

$7.34

PnL

+$2.58

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

SlickRick123<$100

Invested

$6.47

Value

$4.31

PnL

-$2.16

Record

32%

291-613 (904)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$2.89

Value

$2.16

PnL

-$0.72

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$4.85

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$3.55

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$1,087.98

Value

$0.76

PnL

$-1.1K

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.17

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$9.1

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 0%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 10 top traders (40%)Underdog side (market favors No 100%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

38% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000No 63% · 8

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.1%

0.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$8974.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

9074.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.