Kazakhstan leading at halftime?

6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 13

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 75%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.1K

Combined PnL

$30.34

Smart Money Entry

89.9¢ → 100¢

+11% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No6 traders

Total Value$1.9K

Total Shares1,972

Combined PnL+$39.79

Yes2 traders

Total Value$7.97

Total Shares100

Combined PnL-$9.45

No — 75%Yes — 25%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 85.5¢	$868.38	$804.69	+$52.86	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 91.8¢	$410.99	$357.17	-$27.14	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
PV pvc975	Noavg 99.9¢	$331.2	$331.36	+$0.17	99% 258-3 (261)
dips.	Noavg 92¢	$207.64	$207.64	+$0	46% 741-865 (1606)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Yesavg 15.5¢	$242.71	$154.39	-$88.32	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 15.5¢	$188.26	$97.25	-$91.01
└ No leg	Noavg 87.7¢	$54.45	$57.15	+$2.7
SM smithagent	Noavg 92¢	$130.01	$130.06	+$0.05	43% 507-662 (1169)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 76.5¢	$68.16	$82.01	+$13.85	35% 736-1380 (2116)
RN1CTR<$100	Yesavg 18¢	$17.39	$7.73	-$9.66	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Yesavg 1¢	$0.03	$0.24	+$0.21	53% 6646-5820 (12466)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$868.38

Value

$804.69

PnL

+$52.86

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

38791873984189

Invested

$410.99

Value

$357.17

PnL

-$27.14

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

pvc975

Invested

$331.2

Value

$331.36

PnL

+$0.17

Record

99%

258-3 (261)

dips.

Invested

$207.64

Value

$207.64

PnL

+$0

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$242.71

Value

$154.39

PnL

-$88.32

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

Both legs:

Yes$188.2615.5¢-$91.01

No$54.4587.7¢+$2.7

smithagent

Invested

$130.01

Value

$130.06

PnL

+$0.05

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$68.16

Value

$82.01

PnL

+$13.85

Record

35%

736-1380 (2116)

RN1CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.39

Value

$7.73

PnL

-$9.66

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$0.03

Value

$0.24

PnL

+$0.21

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

6 of 8 top traders (75%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 74%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 74% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (1 on Yes) and the top 1000 (7 on No) disagree here.

ctrNo 100% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 71% · 7

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.