Moldova vs. Kazakhstan: 1st Half O/U 0.5

6 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Over (40%) · Over at 100¢ · $8K held · ended Nov 13

Over>99¢Under<1¢Ended Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Over

Consensus Traders

Over 40%

Total Value

$7.6K

Combined PnL

-$855.1

Smart Money Entry

96.9¢ → 100¢

+3% since entry · 6 traders

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over100%

Under0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over6 traders

Total Value$6.9K

Total Shares7,019

Combined PnL+$78.06

Under9 traders

Total Value$660.17

Total Shares2,898

Combined PnL-$933.16

Over — 40%Under — 60%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 15

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
PV pvc975	Overavg 99.9¢	$4.3K	$4.3K	+$2.16	99% 258-3 (261)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Overavg 99¢	$1.3K	$1.2K	-$44.94	98% 343-6 (349)
ER72SEN	Overavg 98¢	$999.99	$974.92	-$25.07	85% 17-3 (20)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Underavg 50.6¢	$1.2K	$611.28	-$583.64	51% 3195-3131 (6326)
38 38791873984189	Overavg 52.8¢	$400.23	$354.79	+$139.31	48% 2787-3042 (5829)
RN1CTR	Underavg 52.6¢	$326.79	$27.7	-$299.09	56% 4863-3816 (8679)
dips.<$100	Overavg 54¢	$8.69	$15.94	+$7.24	46% 741-865 (1606)
GH ghorrock<$100	Overavg 63¢	$13.72	$13.08	-$0.65	53% 1374-1218 (2592)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Underavg 2.3¢	$4.09	$7.73	+$3.64	43% 507-662 (1169)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Underavg 38¢	$60.09	$7.05	-$53.04	35% 750-1386 (2136)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Underavg 35¢	$30.36	$3.87	-$26.49	56% 309-246 (555)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Underavg 1¢	$0.35	$1.58	+$1.22	53% 6646-5820 (12466)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Underavg 48¢	$7.71	$0.72	-$6.99	36% 763-1361 (2124)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Underavg 58¢	$2.91	$0.22	-$2.68	49% 1669-1706 (3375)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Underavg 37¢	$90.46	$0.03	+$33.91	46% 2104-2463 (4567)

pvc975

Over

Invested

$4,314.98

Value

$4.3K

PnL

+$2.16

Record

99%

258-3 (261)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Over

Invested

$1,287

Value

$1.2K

PnL

-$44.94

Record

98%

343-6 (349)

ER72SEN

Over

Invested

$999.99

Value

$974.92

PnL

-$25.07

Record

85%

17-3 (20)

FlaznorpCTR

Under

Invested

$1,194.91

Value

$611.28

PnL

-$583.64

Record

51%

3195-3131 (6326)

38791873984189

Over

Invested

$400.23

Value

$354.79

PnL

+$139.31

Record

48%

2787-3042 (5829)

RN1CTR

Under

Invested

$326.79

Value

$27.7

PnL

-$299.09

Record

56%

4863-3816 (8679)

dips.<$100

Over

Invested

$8.69

Value

$15.94

PnL

+$7.24

Record

46%

741-865 (1606)

ghorrock<$100

Over

Invested

$13.72

Value

$13.08

PnL

-$0.65

Record

53%

1374-1218 (2592)

smithagentCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$4.09

Value

$7.73

PnL

+$3.64

Record

43%

507-662 (1169)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$60.09

Value

$7.05

PnL

-$53.04

Record

35%

750-1386 (2136)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$30.36

Value

$3.87

PnL

-$26.49

Record

56%

309-246 (555)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$0.35

Value

$1.58

PnL

+$1.22

Record

53%

6646-5820 (12466)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$7.71

Value

$0.72

PnL

-$6.99

Record

36%

763-1361 (2124)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Under

Invested

$2.91

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$2.68

Record

49%

1669-1706 (3375)

suntoriCTR<$100

Under

Invested

$90.46

Value

$0.03

PnL

+$33.91

Record

46%

2104-2463 (4567)

Research grade

NeutralOver at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).

Smart Money Signal

Over

6 of 15 top traders (40%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

6 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

40% of non-arb traders are on Over. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpOver 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000Under 60% · 15

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Over wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.