Will Liechtenstein win on 2026-11-13?

14 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold No (74%) · No at 97¢ · $9K held · ends Nov 13

Yes3¢No97¢Ends Fri, Nov 13, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 74%

Total Value

$9.3K

Combined PnL

-$24.87

Smart Money Entry

96¢ → 96.7¢

+1% since entry · 14 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes3%

No97%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No14 traders

Total Value$9.2K

Total Shares9,451

Combined PnL+$0.23

Yes5 traders

Total Value$104.72

Total Shares3,252

Combined PnL-$25.1

No — 74%Yes — 26%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 96.4¢	$2.2K	$2.3K	+$2.34	36% 326-587 (913)
GC GC-P	Noavg 96¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$7.87	33% 251-499 (750)
NM NM-P	Noavg 96.1¢	$1.2K	$1.2K	+$6.25	59% 3648-2489 (6137)
LI LightParadox	Noavg 95¢	$1.0K	$1.0K	+$16.3	35% 749-1385 (2134)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 94.8¢	$824.05	$787.72	-$36.33	54% 1849-1555 (3404)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 96.2¢	$768.44	$771.62	+$3.19	48% 677-745 (1422)
0X 0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080	Noavg 96.7¢	$771.55	$770.75	-$0.8	22% 266-965 (1231)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Noavg 96.9¢	$452.1	$450.67	-$1.43	39% 3479-5356 (8835)
LI Limousin	Noavg 96.7¢	$214	$213.93	-$0.07	35% 735-1379 (2114)
BU BunCaCham	Noavg 96.6¢	$168.02	$167.93	-$0.09	— 18-1 (19)
38 38791873984189	Noavg 96.5¢	$441.74	$147.81	-$0.33	48% 2786-3040 (5826)
MA MadridTime	Noavg 94.6¢	$134.31	$136.13	+$1.82	36% 761-1361 (2122)
nigiri99<$100	Noavg 95¢	$72.2	$73.42	+$1.22	52% 471-427 (898)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Yesavg 4.5¢	$81.28	$59.87	-$21.41	50% 3193-3131 (6324)
VE Venusian<$100	Noavg 96¢	$46.88	$47.17	+$0.29	34% 735-1404 (2139)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Yesavg 3¢	$18.46	$17.84	-$0.62	47% 189-212 (401)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$13.93	$11.64	-$2.29	43% 808-1065 (1873)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 3.4¢	$80.04	$9.97	+$0.03	53% 1326-1186 (2512)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 3.8¢	$6.21	$5.4	-$0.81	49% 1668-1706 (3374)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$2,248.65

Value

$2.3K

PnL

+$2.34

Record

36%

326-587 (913)

GC-P

Invested

$1,214.52

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$7.87

Record

33%

251-499 (750)

NM-P

Invested

$1,156.8

Value

$1.2K

PnL

+$6.25

Record

59%

3648-2489 (6137)

LightParadox

Invested

$1,023.17

Value

$1.0K

PnL

+$16.3

Record

35%

749-1385 (2134)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$824.05

Value

$787.72

PnL

-$36.33

Record

54%

1849-1555 (3404)

SnakeBall

Invested

$768.44

Value

$771.62

PnL

+$3.19

Record

48%

677-745 (1422)

0x760907C8840491c8C86fdDB843D3f1d801786C4e-1771959662080

Invested

$771.55

Value

$770.75

PnL

-$0.8

Record

22%

266-965 (1231)

xtxpleasecallme

Invested

$452.1

Value

$450.67

PnL

-$1.43

Record

39%

3479-5356 (8835)

Limousin

Invested

$214

Value

$213.93

PnL

-$0.07

Record

35%

735-1379 (2114)

BunCaCham

Invested

$168.02

Value

$167.93

PnL

-$0.09

Record

—

18-1 (19)

38791873984189

Invested

$441.74

Value

$147.81

PnL

-$0.33

Record

48%

2786-3040 (5826)

MadridTime

Invested

$134.31

Value

$136.13

PnL

+$1.82

Record

36%

761-1361 (2122)

nigiri99<$100

Invested

$72.2

Value

$73.42

PnL

+$1.22

Record

52%

471-427 (898)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$81.28

Value

$59.87

PnL

-$21.41

Record

50%

3193-3131 (6324)

Venusian<$100

Invested

$46.88

Value

$47.17

PnL

+$0.29

Record

34%

735-1404 (2139)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$18.46

Value

$17.84

PnL

-$0.62

Record

47%

189-212 (401)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.93

Value

$11.64

PnL

-$2.29

Record

43%

808-1065 (1873)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.04

Value

$9.97

PnL

+$0.03

Record

53%

1326-1186 (2512)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$6.21

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.81

Record

49%

1668-1706 (3374)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 97%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

14 of 19 top traders (74%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

12 traders

Top 2 hold 33%

Freshness

Mature

20h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBroad

67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 33% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleNo 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 70% · 10

Aligned

Top 1000No 67% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance97.8%

96.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$2.24

Max Loss

-$100.00

102.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.