Latvia vs. Armenia: O/U 2.5

16 of 19 top Polymarket traders hold Under (84%) · Under at 60¢ · $112K held · ends Nov 15

Over41¢Under59¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 84%

Total Value

$112.1K

Combined PnL

-$73.75

Smart Money Entry

58.1¢ → 59.5¢

+2% since entry · 16 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over41%

Under60%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Over3 traders

Total Value$46.3K

Total Shares114,263

Combined PnL$-1.7K

Under16 traders

Total Value$65.8K

Total Shares110,523

Combined PnL+$1.6K

Over — 16%Under — 84%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
1L 1l2ihj34li12u34CTR	Overavg 42¢	$47.7K	$46.1K	$-1.7K	8% 12-135 (147)
KE keeptheblueflagflyinghigh	Underavg 58¢	$33.0K	$33.9K	+$854.01	50% 2835-2864 (5699)
RI RichieRicher	Underavg 58¢	$10.1K	$10.3K	+$260.46	55% 493-407 (900)
ZH zhuz632	Underavg 58¢	$6.9K	$7.1K	+$178.93	4% 7-164 (171)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 59¢	$3.4K	$3.5K	+$29.04	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
CH ch27er	Underavg 58¢	$3.3K	$3.3K	+$84.05	33% 31-63 (94)
RN1	Underavg 58¢	$2.9K	$3.0K	+$75	54% 6014-5089 (11103)
AY ay118	Underavg 58¢	$1.3K	$1.3K	+$32.84	32% 48-100 (148)
GC GC-P	Underavg 58.4¢	$730	$743.75	+$13.75	42% 547-747 (1294)
NM NM-P	Underavg 58.4¢	$730	$743.75	+$13.75	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
0xheavy888	Underavg 58.6¢	$532.3	$540.85	+$8.54	56% 663-529 (1192)
NO Notradecopy	Underavg 58¢	$499.99	$512.92	+$12.93	25% 66-203 (269)
GA GamblingAddict12345	Underavg 58¢	$499.99	$512.92	+$12.93	58% 61-45 (106)
38 38791873984189	Underavg 58.3¢	$325.82	$263.4	+$7.46	48% 3948-4293 (8241)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 39.7¢	$186.56	$187.86	+$1.3	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100	Underavg 58¢	$41.76	$42.84	+$1.08	48% 469-508 (977)
HA hang808<$100	Underavg 58¢	$41.19	$42.25	+$1.07	8% 8-94 (102)
SU suntori<$100	Underavg 58.7¢	$47.61	$41.57	+$0.85	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 40¢	$29.2	$29.2	+$0	56% 649-514 (1163)

1l2ihj34li12u34CTR

Over

Invested

$47,718.66

Value

$46.1K

PnL

$-1.7K

Record

12-135 (147)

keeptheblueflagflyinghigh

Under

Invested

$33,021.8

Value

$33.9K

PnL

+$854.01

Record

50%

2835-2864 (5699)

RichieRicher

Under

Invested

$10,071.24

Value

$10.3K

PnL

+$260.46

Record

55%

493-407 (900)

zhuz632

Under

Invested

$6,918.8

Value

$7.1K

PnL

+$178.93

Record

7-164 (171)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$3,435.84

Value

$3.5K

PnL

+$29.04

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

ch27er

Under

Invested

$3,250

Value

$3.3K

PnL

+$84.05

Record

33%

31-63 (94)

RN1

Under

Invested

$2,900

Value

$3.0K

PnL

+$75

Record

54%

6014-5089 (11103)

ay118

Under

Invested

$1,270

Value

$1.3K

PnL

+$32.84

Record

32%

48-100 (148)

GC-P

Under

Invested

$730

Value

$743.75

PnL

+$13.75

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

NM-P

Under

Invested

$730

Value

$743.75

PnL

+$13.75

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$532.3

Value

$540.85

PnL

+$8.54

Record

56%

663-529 (1192)

Notradecopy

Under

Invested

$499.99

Value

$512.92

PnL

+$12.93

Record

25%

66-203 (269)

GamblingAddict12345

Under

Invested

$499.99

Value

$512.92

PnL

+$12.93

Record

58%

61-45 (106)

38791873984189

Under

Invested

$325.82

Value

$263.4

PnL

+$7.46

Record

48%

3948-4293 (8241)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$186.56

Value

$187.86

PnL

+$1.3

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100

Under

Invested

$41.76

Value

$42.84

PnL

+$1.08

Record

48%

469-508 (977)

hang808<$100

Under

Invested

$41.19

Value

$42.25

PnL

+$1.07

Record

8-94 (102)

suntori<$100

Under

Invested

$47.61

Value

$41.57

PnL

+$0.85

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$29.2

Value

$29.2

PnL

+$0

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 60%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
$50k+ behind an 80 %+ consensusNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: +10.3 % a trade (n 172), picked after seeing the table. Full year, out of sample: $50k+ on the side −2.7 % (n 641, 95 % CI −7.6 to +2.9); 80 %+ with $50k+ on a favourite +0.4 % (n 1,558, 95 % CI −2.3 to +3.0): no edge.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Under

16 of 19 top traders (84%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+10 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 99%

Freshness

Fresh

2h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 50% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000Under 50% · 6

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance61.7%

59.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$62.09

Max Loss

-$100.00

162.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.