Latvia vs. Armenia: 1st Half O/U 1.5
6 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $1K held · ended Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
Under
9
Under 67%
$1.1K
-$79.19
81.6¢ → 100¢
+22% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 9 top traders (67%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Fresh
0h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Underavg 82.5¢ | $373.42 | $385.93 | +$12.51 | 49% 4635-4904 (9539) |
LO lonmi2511 | Underavg 74¢ | $196.47 | $265.37 | +$68.9 | 59% 747-512 (1259) |
 RN1 | Underavg 85.1¢ | $207.24 | $243.42 | +$36.18 | 54% 6017-5091 (11108) |
DA dashattacker | Underavg 96¢ | $112.53 | $117.16 | +$4.63 | 65% 349-188 (537) |
FO Forecastication2 | Underavg 74¢ | $84.36 | $109.44 | +$25.08 | 44% 337-422 (759) |
38 38791873984189CTR | Overavg 18.8¢ | $215.55 | $5.93 | -$79.42 | 48% 3953-4307 (8260) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Underavg 83¢ | $4.15 | $5 | +$0.85 | 48% 2522-2734 (5256) |
SU suntoriCTR | Overavg 26¢ | $142.85 | $0.28 | -$142.57 | 46% 3240-3776 (7016) |
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100 | Overavg 11.2¢ | $5.37 | $0.02 | -$5.34 | 39% 1558-2440 (3998) |
Invested
$373.42
Value
$385.93
PnL
+$12.51
Record
49%
4635-4904 (9539)
Invested
$196.47
Value
$265.37
PnL
+$68.9
Record
59%
747-512 (1259)
RN1Invested
$207.24
Value
$243.42
PnL
+$36.18
Record
54%
6017-5091 (11108)
Invested
$112.53
Value
$117.16
PnL
+$4.63
Record
65%
349-188 (537)
Invested
$84.36
Value
$109.44
PnL
+$25.08
Record
44%
337-422 (759)
Invested
$215.55
Value
$5.93
PnL
-$79.42
Record
48%
3953-4307 (8260)
Invested
$4.15
Value
$5
PnL
+$0.85
Record
48%
2522-2734 (5256)
Invested
$142.85
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$142.57
Record
46%
3240-3776 (7016)
Invested
$5.37
Value
$0.02
PnL
-$5.34
Record
39%
1558-2440 (3998)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.