Latvia vs. Armenia: 1st Half O/U 0.5

5 of 16 top Polymarket traders hold Under (31%) · Under at 100¢ · $24K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 31%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$24.1K

Combined PnL

$1.8K

Smart Money Entry

89.1¢ → 100¢

+12% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 16 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$18.4K

Total Shares18,563

Combined PnL+$1.9K

Over11 traders

Total Value$791.37

Total Shares7,592

Combined PnL-$82.51

Under — 31%Over — 69%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 91.5¢	$16.0K	$17.5K	+$1.5K	65% 349-188 (537)
RN1ARB<$100	Underavg 78.3¢	$2.1K	$2.7K	+$585.42	54% 6017-5091 (11108)
└ Under leg	Underavg 78.3¢	$1.9K	$2.0K	+$159.92
└ Over leg	Overavg 5.4¢	$238.08	$663.59	+$425.5
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Overavg 12.2¢	$1.6K	$2.2K	+$570.23	49% 4635-4904 (9539)
└ Over leg	Overavg 12.2¢	$913.72	$1.1K	+$207.92
└ Under leg	Underavg 56.5¢	$716.41	$1.1K	+$362.31
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 12.8¢	$374.99	$430.68	+$55.68	39% 1558-2440 (3998)
LI Limousin	Underavg 45.4¢	$222.68	$416.98	+$194.3	38% 1318-2168 (3486)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 49¢	$182.15	$315.97	+$133.82	37% 1336-2230 (3566)
VE Venusian	Underavg 48.8¢	$96.76	$180.21	+$95.06	38% 1342-2205 (3547)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 23.5¢	$318.69	$158.04	-$130.05	48% 3953-4307 (8260)
CI cigarettesCTR	Overavg 7¢	$67.54	$144.73	+$77.19	53% 7473-6603 (14076)
poshposhCTR<$100	Overavg 7.5¢	$12.85	$25.71	+$12.85	49% 1311-1390 (2701)
0X 0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100	Underavg 92¢	$24.87	$22.97	-$1.89	83% 99-20 (119)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 13¢	$19.75	$22.79	+$3.04	35% 628-1146 (1774)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 63¢	$28.69	$6.83	-$21.86	56% 651-514 (1165)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 35.6¢	$20.65	$1.3	-$6.57	46% 3240-3776 (7016)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Overavg 3¢	$70.95	$1.18	-$69.77	38% 1342-2182 (3524)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 8.6¢	$30.24	$0.07	-$0.17	48% 2522-2734 (5256)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 0.2¢	$0.1	$0.03	-$0.08	50% 1122-1124 (2246)
US User7429CTR<$100	Overavg 7.4¢	$2.8	$0.02	-$2.78	43% 434-566 (1000)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$16,013.71

Value

$17.5K

PnL

+$1.5K

Record

65%

349-188 (537)

RN1ARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,097.98

Value

$2.7K

PnL

+$585.42

Record

54%

6017-5091 (11108)

Both legs:

Under$1,859.978.3¢+$159.92

Over$238.085.4¢+$425.5

FlaznorpARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,630.13

Value

$2.2K

PnL

+$570.23

Record

49%

4635-4904 (9539)

Both legs:

Over$913.7212.2¢+$207.92

Under$716.4156.5¢+$362.31

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$374.99

Value

$430.68

PnL

+$55.68

Record

39%

1558-2440 (3998)

Limousin

Under

Invested

$222.68

Value

$416.98

PnL

+$194.3

Record

38%

1318-2168 (3486)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$182.15

Value

$315.97

PnL

+$133.82

Record

37%

1336-2230 (3566)

Venusian

Under

Invested

$96.76

Value

$180.21

PnL

+$95.06

Record

38%

1342-2205 (3547)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$318.69

Value

$158.04

PnL

-$130.05

Record

48%

3953-4307 (8260)

cigarettesCTR

Over

Invested

$67.54

Value

$144.73

PnL

+$77.19

Record

53%

7473-6603 (14076)

poshposhCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.85

Value

$25.71

PnL

+$12.85

Record

49%

1311-1390 (2701)

0xE337F5A28E9C530a676C959A1888Ba5368664ad6-1779639269540<$100

Under

Invested

$24.87

Value

$22.97

PnL

-$1.89

Record

83%

99-20 (119)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19.75

Value

$22.79

PnL

+$3.04

Record

35%

628-1146 (1774)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.69

Value

$6.83

PnL

-$21.86

Record

56%

651-514 (1165)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$20.65

Value

$1.3

PnL

-$6.57

Record

46%

3240-3776 (7016)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.95

Value

$1.18

PnL

-$69.77

Record

38%

1342-2182 (3524)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$30.24

Value

$0.07

PnL

-$0.17

Record

48%

2522-2734 (5256)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.1

Value

$0.03

PnL

-$0.08

Record

50%

1122-1124 (2246)

User7429CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.8

Value

$0.02

PnL

-$2.78

Record

43%

434-566 (1000)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 16 top traders (31%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed11 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 79%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

54% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrUnder 56% · 9

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 54% · 13

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.