Will Latvia vs. Armenia end in a draw?
5 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (56%) · No at 70¢ · $394 held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
9
No 56%
$394.12
-$4.05
69.4¢ → 69.5¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 70%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 9 top traders (56%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO GoalLineGhost | Noavg 69¢ | $154.61 | $155.73 | +$1.12 | 52% 2473-2263 (4736) |
GC GC-P<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $82.99 | $84.21 | +$1.22 | 42% 547-747 (1294) |
 tradecraft<$100 | Noavg 69.5¢ | $69.48 | $70.98 | +$1.5 | 34% 460-894 (1354) |
SU suntoriCTR<$100 | Yesavg 30¢ | $47.61 | $46.02 | -$1.59 | 46% 3204-3750 (6954) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100 | Noavg 69¢ | $19.39 | $19.53 | +$0.14 | 49% 96-101 (197) |
GU guilttripCTR<$100 | Yesavg 47.8¢ | $16.27 | $9.86 | -$6.41 | 47% 27-30 (57) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $3.84 | $3.81 | -$0.03 | 53% 2305-2071 (4376) |
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $2.53 | $2.53 | +$0 | 49% 4632-4895 (9527) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Yesavg 29¢ | $1.45 | $1.45 | +$0 | 41% 1173-1667 (2840) |
Invested
$154.61
Value
$155.73
PnL
+$1.12
Record
52%
2473-2263 (4736)
Invested
$82.99
Value
$84.21
PnL
+$1.22
Record
42%
547-747 (1294)
tradecraft<$100Invested
$69.48
Value
$70.98
PnL
+$1.5
Record
34%
460-894 (1354)
Invested
$47.61
Value
$46.02
PnL
-$1.59
Record
46%
3204-3750 (6954)
Invested
$19.39
Value
$19.53
PnL
+$0.14
Record
49%
96-101 (197)
Invested
$16.27
Value
$9.86
PnL
-$6.41
Record
47%
27-30 (57)
Invested
$3.84
Value
$3.81
PnL
-$0.03
Record
53%
2305-2071 (4376)
Invested
$2.53
Value
$2.53
PnL
+$0
Record
49%
4632-4895 (9527)
Invested
$1.45
Value
$1.45
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
1173-1667 (2840)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
69.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.