Kosovo vs. Israel: O/U 3.5

7 of 13 top Polymarket traders hold Under (54%) · Under at 93¢ · $10K held · ended Nov 14

Over7¢Under93¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 54%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$9.5K

Combined PnL

$823.64

Smart Money Entry

75.7¢ → 93¢

+23% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over7%

Under93%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under7 traders

Total Value$7.7K

Total Shares8,406

Combined PnL+$1.1K

Over6 traders

Total Value$312.47

Total Shares2,388

Combined PnL-$300.64

Under — 54%Over — 46%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BB BBQChickenisthebesttt	Underavg 74.9¢	$3.8K	$4.6K	+$742.73	— 10-7 (17)
GO GoalLineGhost	Underavg 77.1¢	$2.0K	$2.4K	+$320.97	53% 2083-1825 (3908)
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Underavg 85.8¢	$2.1K	$1.5K	-$552.59	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
└ Under leg	Underavg 85.8¢	$1.0K	$1.1K	+$68.96
└ Over leg	Overavg 21.6¢	$1.0K	$402.89	-$621.55
0xheavy888	Underavg 70¢	$280	$288	+$8	54% 493-416 (909)
RN1	Underavg 77.2¢	$200.74	$242.97	+$42.23	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
Secondhandvinyl	Underavg 88.6¢	$175.44	$185.13	+$9.69	75% 234-76 (310)
0X 0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR	Overavg 25¢	$374.74	$157.39	-$217.35	51% 3869-3651 (7520)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Overavg 27¢	$70.2	$72.8	+$2.6	48% 286-304 (590)
SU suntoriCTR	Overavg 30¢	$110.47	$49.71	-$60.76	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 70.4¢	$42.23	$40.43	+$0.65	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 20.5¢	$201.37	$12.18	-$22.12	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 23¢	$11.21	$11.21	+$0	35% 438-797 (1235)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 12.6¢	$12.19	$9.18	-$3.02	52% 815-747 (1562)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 89¢	$1.11	$1.12	+$0.01	37% 1022-1710 (2732)

BBQChickenisthebesttt

Under

Invested

$3,825.48

Value

$4.6K

PnL

+$742.73

Record

—

10-7 (17)

GoalLineGhost

Under

Invested

$2,043.34

Value

$2.4K

PnL

+$320.97

Record

53%

2083-1825 (3908)

FlaznorpARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,062.53

Value

$1.5K

PnL

-$552.59

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

Both legs:

Under$1,038.0885.8¢+$68.96

Over$1,024.4521.6¢-$621.55

0xheavy888

Under

Invested

$280

Value

$288

PnL

+$8

Record

54%

493-416 (909)

RN1

Under

Invested

$200.74

Value

$242.97

PnL

+$42.23

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

Secondhandvinyl

Under

Invested

$175.44

Value

$185.13

PnL

+$9.69

Record

75%

234-76 (310)

0x2c335066FE58fe9237c3d3Dc7b275C2a034a0563-1759935795465CTR

Over

Invested

$374.74

Value

$157.39

PnL

-$217.35

Record

51%

3869-3651 (7520)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$70.2

Value

$72.8

PnL

+$2.6

Record

48%

286-304 (590)

suntoriCTR

Over

Invested

$110.47

Value

$49.71

PnL

-$60.76

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$42.23

Value

$40.43

PnL

+$0.65

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$201.37

Value

$12.18

PnL

-$22.12

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$11.21

Value

$11.21

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$12.19

Value

$9.18

PnL

-$3.02

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$1.11

Value

$1.12

PnL

+$0.01

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 93%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

Under

7 of 13 top traders (54%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed6 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

60% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrUnder 67% · 3

Aligned

Top 1000Under 60% · 5

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.3%

93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$6.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

106.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.