Spread: Israel (-1.5)
10 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Kosovo (100%) · Kosovo at 97¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
Kosovo
10
Kosovo 100%
$1.6K
$42.31
94.2¢ → 97¢
+3% since entry · 10 traders
Research grade
NeutralKosovo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
10 of 10 top traders (100%)5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 77%
Freshness
Mature
25h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Kosovo. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Kosovoavg 94.2¢ | $615.36 | $629.24 | +$15.32 | 49% 3811-3974 (7785) |
GO GoalLineGhost | Kosovoavg 94.7¢ | $600.58 | $608.88 | +$8.3 | 53% 2083-1825 (3908) |
TO topdogbigboi | Kosovoavg 95.4¢ | $124.89 | $125.85 | +$0.96 | 37% 1022-1710 (2732) |
38 38791873984189 | Kosovoavg 91.3¢ | $334.72 | $95.9 | +$15.62 | 48% 3205-3505 (6710) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Kosovoavg 92¢ | $58.29 | $58.83 | +$0.53 | 42% 991-1360 (2351) |
GH ghorrock | Kosovoavg 91.6¢ | $103.02 | $42.91 | +$1.54 | 52% 1716-1565 (3281) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Kosovoavg 96¢ | $9.99 | $9.94 | -$0.05 | 39% 3645-5777 (9422) |
 RN1<$100 | Kosovoavg 95.1¢ | $5.9 | $5.95 | +$0.05 | 55% 5362-4303 (9665) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Kosovoavg 96¢ | $4.8 | $4.73 | -$0.07 | 48% 2067-2229 (4296) |
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382<$100 | Kosovoavg 91¢ | $4.55 | $4.65 | +$0.1 | 48% 286-304 (590) |
Invested
$615.36
Value
$629.24
PnL
+$15.32
Record
49%
3811-3974 (7785)
Invested
$600.58
Value
$608.88
PnL
+$8.3
Record
53%
2083-1825 (3908)
Invested
$124.89
Value
$125.85
PnL
+$0.96
Record
37%
1022-1710 (2732)
Invested
$334.72
Value
$95.9
PnL
+$15.62
Record
48%
3205-3505 (6710)
Invested
$58.29
Value
$58.83
PnL
+$0.53
Record
42%
991-1360 (2351)
Invested
$103.02
Value
$42.91
PnL
+$1.54
Record
52%
1716-1565 (3281)
Invested
$9.99
Value
$9.94
PnL
-$0.05
Record
39%
3645-5777 (9422)
RN1<$100Invested
$5.9
Value
$5.95
PnL
+$0.05
Record
55%
5362-4303 (9665)
Invested
$4.8
Value
$4.73
PnL
-$0.07
Record
48%
2067-2229 (4296)
Invested
$4.55
Value
$4.65
PnL
+$0.1
Record
48%
286-304 (590)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.
Market Info
Traders in this Market
Flaznorp
Kosovo — $629.24
GoalLineGhost
Kosovo — $608.88
topdogbigboi
Kosovo — $125.85
38791873984189
Kosovo — $95.9
sentrio
Kosovo — $58.83
ghorrock
Kosovo — $42.91
xtxpleasecallme
Kosovo — $9.94
RN1
Kosovo — $5.95
ferdinand2
Kosovo — $4.73
0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382
Kosovo — $4.65