Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (53%). 12 of 18 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Will Kosovo win on 2026-11-14?

12 of 18 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 48¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 14

Yes53¢No47¢Ends Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 67%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$8.5K

Combined PnL

$27.81

Smart Money Entry

46.6¢ → 47.5¢

+2% since entry · 12 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes53%

No48%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes6 traders

Total Value$3.6K

Total Shares6,756

Combined PnL-$32.39

No12 traders

Total Value$4.8K

Total Shares10,227

Combined PnL+$60.2

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
dimble	Yesavg 53.5¢	$3.4K	$3.4K	-$31.85	0% 0-27 (27)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 46.8¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	+$23.98	50% 3526-3585 (7111)
TY Tys0n8686CTR	Noavg 46¢	$1.3K	$1.4K	+$29.29	— 11-7 (18)
NM NM-PCTR	Noavg 47¢	$665.31	$665.31	+$0	60% 3726-2536 (6262)
GC GC-PCTR	Noavg 47¢	$551.92	$551.92	-$0	36% 317-553 (870)
SE sentrioCTR	Noavg 46.8¢	$297.34	$302.05	+$4.71	43% 915-1235 (2150)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 46.7¢	$94.27	$94.83	+$0.56	53% 1556-1404 (2960)
DA darkumbreon88<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$80.9	$80.9	-$0	62% 1023-638 (1661)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 46¢	$76.36	$78.02	+$1.66	48% 269-290 (559)
RA rabbitfoot1<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$65.93	$65.93	-$0	3% 13-383 (396)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$63	$64.32	+$1.32	56% 426-340 (766)
└ No leg	Noavg 46¢	$31.28	$32.3	+$1.02
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$31.72	$32.02	+$0.3
AN AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$57.34	$57.34	+$0	44% 75-94 (169)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$43.02	$43.02	+$0	36% 910-1584 (2494)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 53.7¢	$39.03	$38.5	-$0.53	46% 2333-2789 (5122)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$21.04	$21.04	+$0	36% 879-1566 (2445)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$11.89	$11.89	+$0	36% 890-1596 (2486)
HE hedgevaultmainnet1<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$5.88	$5.88	-$0	50% 63-62 (125)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Noavg 47¢	$5.7	$5.7	+$0	35% 424-772 (1196)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Yesavg 53¢	$1.14	$1.13	-$0.01	52% 26-24 (50)

dimble

Yes

Invested

$3,420.41

Value

$3.4K

PnL

-$31.85

Record

0-27 (27)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$1,595.28

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$23.98

Record

50%

3526-3585 (7111)

Tys0n8686CTR

Invested

$1,347.24

Value

$1.4K

PnL

+$29.29

Record

—

11-7 (18)

NM-PCTR

Invested

$665.31

Value

$665.31

PnL

+$0

Record

60%

3726-2536 (6262)

GC-PCTR

Invested

$551.92

Value

$551.92

PnL

-$0

Record

36%

317-553 (870)

sentrioCTR

Invested

$297.34

Value

$302.05

PnL

+$4.71

Record

43%

915-1235 (2150)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$94.27

Value

$94.83

PnL

+$0.56

Record

53%

1556-1404 (2960)

darkumbreon88<$100

Yes

Invested

$80.9

Value

$80.9

PnL

-$0

Record

62%

1023-638 (1661)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$76.36

Value

$78.02

PnL

+$1.66

Record

48%

269-290 (559)

rabbitfoot1<$100

Yes

Invested

$65.93

Value

$65.93

PnL

-$0

Record

13-383 (396)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$63

Value

$64.32

PnL

+$1.32

Record

56%

426-340 (766)

Both legs:

No$31.2846¢+$1.02

Yes$31.7252¢+$0.3

AnonymousUsernameCTR<$100

Invested

$57.34

Value

$57.34

PnL

+$0

Record

44%

75-94 (169)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Invested

$43.02

Value

$43.02

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

910-1584 (2494)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$39.03

Value

$38.5

PnL

-$0.53

Record

46%

2333-2789 (5122)

LimousinCTR<$100

Invested

$21.04

Value

$21.04

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

879-1566 (2445)

VenusianCTR<$100

Invested

$11.89

Value

$11.89

PnL

+$0

Record

36%

890-1596 (2486)

hedgevaultmainnet1<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.88

Value

$5.88

PnL

-$0

Record

50%

63-62 (125)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Invested

$5.7

Value

$5.7

PnL

+$0

Record

35%

424-772 (1196)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.14

Value

$1.13

PnL

-$0.01

Record

52%

26-24 (50)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 48%

Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.

Smart Money Signal

12 of 18 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 53%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

13 traders

Top 2 hold 59%

Freshness

Mature

48h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

72% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 59% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 73% · 11

Aligned

Top 1000No 72% · 18

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance49.7%

47.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$101.01

Max Loss

-$100.00

201.0

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.