Will Israel win on 2026-11-14?
8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 81¢ · $614 held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
11
No 73%
$614.14
$17.44
77.5¢ → 80.5¢
+4% since entry · 8 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 81%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%9 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-20 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 79%
Freshness
Late
53h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 79% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp | Noavg 77.2¢ | $314.15 | $327.54 | +$13.4 | 49% 3740-3887 (7627) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $95.93 | $99.62 | +$3.69 | 56% 444-355 (799) |
GC GC-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $45 | $45 | +$0 | 37% 344-596 (940) |
 VeryLucky888 | Noavg 77¢ | $178.86 | $43.3 | +$2.14 | 53% 1298-1131 (2429) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $31.63 | $32.85 | +$1.22 | 52% 1661-1516 (3177) |
NM NM-PCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $20.85 | $20.85 | +$0 | 59% 3754-2580 (6334) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Noavg 81¢ | $40.5 | $17.22 | -$3.95 | 48% 3155-3450 (6605) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 78¢ | $11.92 | $12.38 | +$0.46 | 42% 970-1328 (2298) |
GO GoalLineGhostCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $9.38 | $9.63 | +$0.25 | 53% 2050-1788 (3838) |
FE ferdinand2<$100 | Noavg 77¢ | $3.85 | $4.05 | +$0.2 | 48% 2022-2162 (4184) |
 LonnieHawkinss<$100 | Noavg 79¢ | $1.66 | $1.7 | +$0.04 | 50% 30-30 (60) |
Invested
$314.15
Value
$327.54
PnL
+$13.4
Record
49%
3740-3887 (7627)
Invested
$95.93
Value
$99.62
PnL
+$3.69
Record
56%
444-355 (799)
Invested
$45
Value
$45
PnL
+$0
Record
37%
344-596 (940)
VeryLucky888Invested
$178.86
Value
$43.3
PnL
+$2.14
Record
53%
1298-1131 (2429)
Invested
$31.63
Value
$32.85
PnL
+$1.22
Record
52%
1661-1516 (3177)
Invested
$20.85
Value
$20.85
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3754-2580 (6334)
Invested
$40.5
Value
$17.22
PnL
-$3.95
Record
48%
3155-3450 (6605)
Invested
$11.92
Value
$12.38
PnL
+$0.46
Record
42%
970-1328 (2298)
Invested
$9.38
Value
$9.63
PnL
+$0.25
Record
53%
2050-1788 (3838)
Invested
$3.85
Value
$4.05
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
2022-2162 (4184)
LonnieHawkinss<$100Invested
$1.66
Value
$1.7
PnL
+$0.04
Record
50%
30-30 (60)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
80.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.