Kosovo vs. Israel: 1st Half O/U 1.5

5 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (33%) · Under at 100¢ · $4K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 33%

Total Value

$4.2K

Combined PnL

-$37.94

Smart Money Entry

86.5¢ → 100¢

+16% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under5 traders

Total Value$3.7K

Total Shares3,715

Combined PnL+$61.24

Over10 traders

Total Value$505.01

Total Shares3,841

Combined PnL-$99.17

Under — 33%Over — 67%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 73.6¢	$1.6K	$1.6K	-$3.79	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
DA dashattacker	Underavg 96¢	$1.5K	$1.6K	+$62.02	64% 300-171 (471)
0X 0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105	Underavg 99¢	$504.9	$507.45	+$2.55	98% 458-7 (465)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 33¢	$305.28	$305.28	+$0	47% 895-992 (1887)
RN1CTR<$100	Overavg 5.3¢	$88.95	$76.24	-$12.71	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 15.1¢	$297.53	$41.58	-$88.48	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 33¢	$34.32	$34.84	+$0.52	56% 462-367 (829)
LI LimousinCTR<$100	Overavg 32¢	$28.54	$29.43	+$0.89	36% 928-1642 (2570)
LO lonmi2511<$100	Underavg 65¢	$22.36	$22.7	+$0.34	59% 708-482 (1190)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 66¢	$11.02	$11.14	+$0.12	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 5¢	$4.05	$6.88	+$2.83	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 14.1¢	$4.35	$5.38	+$1.03	35% 438-797 (1235)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 7¢	$3.5	$4	+$0.5	52% 815-747 (1562)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Overavg 3.4¢	$0.95	$1.26	+$0.31	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$4.19	$0.11	-$4.08	46% 2616-3104 (5720)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$1,612.34

Value

$1.6K

PnL

-$3.79

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$1,507.2

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$62.02

Record

64%

300-171 (471)

0xB595d09Ce5bBc4d39E3b3D04E80C402d2C8D5922-1769777706105

Under

Invested

$504.9

Value

$507.45

PnL

+$2.55

Record

98%

458-7 (465)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$305.28

Value

$305.28

PnL

+$0

Record

47%

895-992 (1887)

RN1CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$88.95

Value

$76.24

PnL

-$12.71

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$297.53

Value

$41.58

PnL

-$88.48

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$34.32

Value

$34.84

PnL

+$0.52

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

LimousinCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$28.54

Value

$29.43

PnL

+$0.89

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

lonmi2511<$100

Under

Invested

$22.36

Value

$22.7

PnL

+$0.34

Record

59%

708-482 (1190)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$11.02

Value

$11.14

PnL

+$0.12

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.05

Value

$6.88

PnL

+$2.83

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.35

Value

$5.38

PnL

+$1.03

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.5

Value

PnL

+$0.5

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$0.95

Value

$1.26

PnL

+$0.31

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$4.19

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$4.08

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

5 of 15 top traders (33%)10 hold an outcome priced under 50%10 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.