Kosovo vs. Israel: 1st Half O/U 0.5

8 of 20 top Polymarket traders hold Under (40%) · Under at 100¢ · $36K held · ended Nov 14

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sat, Nov 14, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 40%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$35.6K

Combined PnL

$3.4K

Smart Money Entry

81.7¢ → 100¢

+22% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 20 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under8 traders

Total Value$30.0K

Total Shares30,265

Combined PnL+$5.3K

Over12 traders

Total Value$2.9K

Total Shares22,199

Combined PnL$-1.9K

Under — 40%Over — 60%

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 85.6¢	$23.6K	$27.4K	+$3.8K	64% 300-171 (471)
ER72SENARB<$100	Underavg 52¢	$2.2K	$1.6K	+$82.05	83% 24-5 (29)
└ Under leg	Underavg 52¢	$832.06	$904.07	+$114.91
└ Over leg	Overavg 44¢	$704.05	$696.05	-$32.86
VE Venusian	Underavg 41.1¢	$655.77	$1.6K	+$927.82	36% 945-1666 (2611)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Overavg 13.5¢	$3.0K	$1.5K	$-1.4K	49% 3811-3974 (7785)
LuccaF7CTR	Overavg 59¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$30	67% 16-8 (24)
RN1ARB<$100	Overavg 19.4¢	$1.8K	$974.76	-$831.85	55% 5362-4303 (9665)
└ Over leg	Overavg 19.4¢	$1.5K	$585.14	-$928.69
└ Under leg	Underavg 69.5¢	$292.79	$389.62	+$96.84
LI LightParadox	Underavg 41.6¢	$309.73	$737.66	+$427.93	37% 957-1658 (2615)
MA MadridTime	Underavg 44.2¢	$79.46	$179.63	+$100.17	37% 966-1631 (2597)
LI Limousin<$100	Underavg 43.4¢	$51.5	$83.64	+$32.14	36% 928-1642 (2570)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 23.6¢	$414.64	$69.65	-$194.92	48% 3205-3505 (6710)
LU LuckyLooCTR<$100	Overavg 16.4¢	$92.77	$42.3	-$50.47	35% 438-797 (1235)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 57.3¢	$78.08	$40.19	-$37.89	46% 2616-3104 (5720)
TO topdogbigboiCTR	Overavg 13.4¢	$105.48	$39.15	-$66.33	37% 1022-1710 (2732)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Overavg 70¢	$23.33	$23.5	+$0.17	56% 462-367 (829)
CI cigarettesCTR<$100	Overavg 19¢	$19	$20	+$1	53% 7051-6190 (13241)
SE sentrio<$100	Underavg 30¢	$16.5	$16.22	-$0.28	42% 991-1360 (2351)
dips.CTR<$100	Overavg 18.4¢	$32.52	$8.84	-$23.68	47% 967-1091 (2058)
NO NotJumpCTR<$100	Overavg 6.7¢	$6	$5.4	-$0.6	52% 815-747 (1562)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 79¢	$3.95	$3.35	-$0.6	82% 703-150 (853)
GH ghorrock<$100	Underavg 29¢	$3.21	$3.27	+$0.06	52% 1716-1565 (3281)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Overavg 10.7¢	$15.19	$0.71	-$14.48	48% 2067-2229 (4296)
SM smithagentCTR<$100	Overavg 16.3¢	$16.26	$0.05	-$16.21	45% 653-812 (1465)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$23,604.07

Value

$27.4K

PnL

+$3.8K

Record

64%

300-171 (471)

ER72SENARB<$100

Under

Invested

$2,158.29

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$82.05

Record

83%

24-5 (29)

Both legs:

Under$832.0652¢+$114.91

Over$704.0544¢-$32.86

Venusian

Under

Invested

$655.77

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$927.82

Record

36%

945-1666 (2611)

FlaznorpCTR

Over

Invested

$2,980.64

Value

$1.5K

PnL

$-1.4K

Record

49%

3811-3974 (7785)

LuccaF7CTR

Over

Invested

$1,179.99

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$30

Record

67%

16-8 (24)

RN1ARB<$100

Over

Invested

$1,806.61

Value

$974.76

PnL

-$831.85

Record

55%

5362-4303 (9665)

Both legs:

Over$1,513.8219.4¢-$928.69

Under$292.7969.5¢+$96.84

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$309.73

Value

$737.66

PnL

+$427.93

Record

37%

957-1658 (2615)

MadridTime

Under

Invested

$79.46

Value

$179.63

PnL

+$100.17

Record

37%

966-1631 (2597)

Limousin<$100

Under

Invested

$51.5

Value

$83.64

PnL

+$32.14

Record

36%

928-1642 (2570)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$414.64

Value

$69.65

PnL

-$194.92

Record

48%

3205-3505 (6710)

LuckyLooCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$92.77

Value

$42.3

PnL

-$50.47

Record

35%

438-797 (1235)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$78.08

Value

$40.19

PnL

-$37.89

Record

46%

2616-3104 (5720)

topdogbigboiCTR

Over

Invested

$105.48

Value

$39.15

PnL

-$66.33

Record

37%

1022-1710 (2732)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$23.33

Value

$23.5

PnL

+$0.17

Record

56%

462-367 (829)

cigarettesCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$19

Value

$20

PnL

+$1

Record

53%

7051-6190 (13241)

sentrio<$100

Under

Invested

$16.5

Value

$16.22

PnL

-$0.28

Record

42%

991-1360 (2351)

dips.CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$32.52

Value

$8.84

PnL

-$23.68

Record

47%

967-1091 (2058)

NotJumpCTR<$100

Over

Invested

Value

$5.4

PnL

-$0.6

Record

52%

815-747 (1562)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$3.95

Value

$3.35

PnL

-$0.6

Record

82%

703-150 (853)

ghorrock<$100

Under

Invested

$3.21

Value

$3.27

PnL

+$0.06

Record

52%

1716-1565 (3281)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Over

Invested

$15.19

Value

$0.71

PnL

-$14.48

Record

48%

2067-2229 (4296)

smithagentCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$16.26

Value

$0.05

PnL

-$16.21

Record

45%

653-812 (1465)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Under

8 of 20 top traders (40%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed12 hold an outcome priced under 50%12 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

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EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.