Will Kazakhstan win on 2026-11-16?

7 of 9 top Polymarket traders hold No (78%) · No at 75¢ · $797 held · ends Nov 16

Yes26¢No74¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 78%

Total Value

$797.34

Combined PnL

$10.91

Smart Money Entry

75.5¢ → 74.5¢

-1% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes26%

No75%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No7 traders

Total Value$643.59

Total Shares862

Combined PnL-$7.54

Yes2 traders

Total Value$153.75

Total Shares615

Combined PnL+$18.45

No — 78%Yes — 22%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
NM NM-P	Noavg 75.4¢	$236.58	$233.76	-$2.82	59% 3987-2766 (6753)
GC GC-P	Noavg 75.6¢	$175.21	$173.87	-$1.35	43% 589-793 (1382)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 22¢	$123.09	$139.88	+$16.79	48% 4844-5167 (10011)
MA MadridTime<$100	Noavg 75¢	$97.36	$96.71	-$0.65	38% 1445-2329 (3774)
LI LightParadox<$100	Noavg 75¢	$68.69	$68.23	-$0.46	38% 1454-2390 (3844)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 76.3¢	$39.78	$39.1	-$0.68	56% 703-544 (1247)
GU guilttrip<$100	Noavg 80¢	$20.8	$18.29	-$1.43	49% 32-33 (65)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Yesavg 22¢	$12.21	$13.88	+$1.66	48% 2668-2892 (5560)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 75.8¢	$13.77	$13.62	-$0.15	53% 2407-2143 (4550)

NM-P

Invested

$236.58

Value

$233.76

PnL

-$2.82

Record

59%

3987-2766 (6753)

GC-P

Invested

$175.21

Value

$173.87

PnL

-$1.35

Record

43%

589-793 (1382)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$123.09

Value

$139.88

PnL

+$16.79

Record

48%

4844-5167 (10011)

MadridTime<$100

Invested

$97.36

Value

$96.71

PnL

-$0.65

Record

38%

1445-2329 (3774)

LightParadox<$100

Invested

$68.69

Value

$68.23

PnL

-$0.46

Record

38%

1454-2390 (3844)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$39.78

Value

$39.1

PnL

-$0.68

Record

56%

703-544 (1247)

guilttrip<$100

Invested

$20.8

Value

$18.29

PnL

-$1.43

Record

49%

32-33 (65)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$12.21

Value

$13.88

PnL

+$1.66

Record

48%

2668-2892 (5560)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$13.77

Value

$13.62

PnL

-$0.15

Record

53%

2407-2143 (4550)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 75%

Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

7 of 9 top traders (78%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+3 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 63%

Freshness

Mature

31h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

78% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 63% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 80% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000No 78% · 9

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance76.4%

74.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$30.85

Max Loss

-$100.00

130.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.