Italy vs. France: O/U 3.5
6 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Under (75%) · Under at 65¢ · $333 held · ends Nov 12
⚖️
Neutral
Under
8
Under 75%
$332.66
$5.78
64.5¢ → 64.5¢
+0% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralUnder at 65%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 8 top traders (75%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
4h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
75% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL Flaznorp<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $75.18 | $77.53 | +$2.35 | 51% 2511-2408 (4919) |
GO GoalLineGhost<$100 | Underavg 64.1¢ | $75.39 | $75.88 | +$0.49 | 55% 1636-1337 (2973) |
38 38791873984189<$100 | Underavg 66¢ | $55.49 | $54.3 | -$1.18 | 48% 2099-2308 (4407) |
VE VenusianCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $45.02 | $47.01 | +$1.99 | 32% 530-1111 (1641) |
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100 | Overavg 34¢ | $42.97 | $44.87 | +$1.9 | 33% 544-1120 (1664) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Underavg 64.9¢ | $21.4 | $21.29 | -$0.11 | 53% 920-807 (1727) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $7.97 | $8.22 | +$0.25 | 41% 534-766 (1300) |
MU Multicoloured-Serf<$100 | Underavg 64¢ | $3.46 | $3.56 | +$0.11 | 48% 579-615 (1194) |
Invested
$75.18
Value
$77.53
PnL
+$2.35
Record
51%
2511-2408 (4919)
Invested
$75.39
Value
$75.88
PnL
+$0.49
Record
55%
1636-1337 (2973)
Invested
$55.49
Value
$54.3
PnL
-$1.18
Record
48%
2099-2308 (4407)
Invested
$45.02
Value
$47.01
PnL
+$1.99
Record
32%
530-1111 (1641)
Invested
$42.97
Value
$44.87
PnL
+$1.9
Record
33%
544-1120 (1664)
Invested
$21.4
Value
$21.29
PnL
-$0.11
Record
53%
920-807 (1727)
Invested
$7.97
Value
$8.22
PnL
+$0.25
Record
41%
534-766 (1300)
Invested
$3.46
Value
$3.56
PnL
+$0.11
Record
48%
579-615 (1194)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.