Spread: Italy (-1.5)

3 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold France (38%) · France at 94¢ · $7K held · ended Nov 12

Italy7¢France93¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

France

Consensus Traders

France 38%

2 arb excluded

Total Value

$7.0K

Combined PnL

$217.28

Smart Money Entry

91¢ → 93.5¢

+3% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralFrance at 94%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

France

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Italy7%

France94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

France3 traders

Total Value$5.6K

Total Shares5,865

Combined PnL+$219.53

Italy5 traders

Total Value$47.53

Total Shares466

Combined PnL-$2.25

France — 38%Italy — 62%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on France. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrItaly 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Italy 67% · 9

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
nigiri99	Franceavg 91¢	$5.0K	$5.3K	+$221.96	52% 353-330 (683)
GO GoalLineGhostARB<$100	Franceavg 90.5¢	$906.67	$846.83	-$59.84	55% 1658-1365 (3023)
└ France leg	Franceavg 90.5¢	$611.73	$632.25	+$20.52
└ Italy leg	Italyavg 8.9¢	$294.94	$214.58	-$80.36
FL FlaznorpARB<$100	Italyavg 9¢	$554.11	$521.44	-$32.67	51% 2573-2489 (5062)
└ Italy leg	Italyavg 9¢	$328.99	$292.26	-$36.73
└ France leg	Franceavg 90.4¢	$225.12	$229.18	+$4.06
SU suntori	Franceavg 93¢	$190.46	$186.36	-$4.1	47% 1666-1892 (3558)
XT xtxpleasecallme	Franceavg 90¢	$100	$101.67	+$1.67	40% 3308-4940 (8248)
38 38791873984189CTR	Italyavg 9.2¢	$152.68	$15.31	-$0.69	48% 2255-2437 (4692)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Italyavg 8¢	$12.52	$13.3	+$0.78	40% 80-118 (198)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Italyavg 9.9¢	$14.76	$12.87	-$1.89	41% 562-807 (1369)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Italyavg 9.3¢	$8.56	$4.84	-$0.15	54% 997-856 (1853)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Italyavg 10¢	$1.5	$1.2	-$0.3	34% 564-1116 (1680)

nigiri99

France

Invested

$5,049.59

Value

$5.3K

PnL

+$221.96

Record

52%

353-330 (683)

GoalLineGhostARB<$100

France

Invested

$906.67

Value

$846.83

PnL

-$59.84

Record

55%

1658-1365 (3023)

Both legs:

France$611.7390.5¢+$20.52

Italy$294.948.9¢-$80.36

FlaznorpARB<$100

Italy

Invested

$554.11

Value

$521.44

PnL

-$32.67

Record

51%

2573-2489 (5062)

Both legs:

Italy$328.999¢-$36.73

France$225.1290.4¢+$4.06

suntori

France

Invested

$190.46

Value

$186.36

PnL

-$4.1

Record

47%

1666-1892 (3558)

xtxpleasecallme

France

Invested

$100

Value

$101.67

PnL

+$1.67

Record

40%

3308-4940 (8248)

38791873984189CTR

Italy

Invested

$152.68

Value

$15.31

PnL

-$0.69

Record

48%

2255-2437 (4692)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Italy

Invested

$12.52

Value

$13.3

PnL

+$0.78

Record

40%

80-118 (198)

sentrioCTR<$100

Italy

Invested

$14.76

Value

$12.87

PnL

-$1.89

Record

41%

562-807 (1369)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Italy

Invested

$8.56

Value

$4.84

PnL

-$0.15

Record

54%

997-856 (1853)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Italy

Invested

$1.5

Value

$1.2

PnL

-$0.3

Record

34%

564-1116 (1680)

Research grade

NeutralFrance at 94%

Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

France

3 of 8 top traders (38%)2 arbitrage traders dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+13 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on France. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrItaly 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000Italy 67% · 9

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that France wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance94.8%

93.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5.53

Max Loss

-$100.00

105.5

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.