France leading at halftime?

8 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold No (73%) · No at 100¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 73%

Total Value

$2.5K

Combined PnL

$252.02

Smart Money Entry

68.4¢ → 100¢

+46% since entry · 8 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes0%

No100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No8 traders

Total Value$2.4K

Total Shares2,828

Combined PnL+$399.98

Yes3 traders

Total Value$53.8

Total Shares262

Combined PnL-$147.96

No — 73%Yes — 27%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
FL Flaznorp	Noavg 69.2¢	$1.6K	$1.8K	+$256.91	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
GO GoalLineGhost	Noavg 63.1¢	$198.55	$253.87	+$55.31	55% 1693-1391 (3084)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382	Noavg 60¢	$153.09	$239.84	+$86.75	42% 97-133 (230)
PV pvc975<$100	Noavg 99.9¢	$73.68	$61.21	-$12.46	99% 175-2 (177)
38 38791873984189CTR	Yesavg 38¢	$279.38	$26.49	-$62.59	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 84¢	$84.23	$20.78	-$63.45	33% 585-1187 (1772)
LI Limousin<$100	Noavg 52.9¢	$10.09	$19.05	+$8.96	33% 563-1169 (1732)
RN1<$100	Noavg 59¢	$4.13	$6.58	+$2.45	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
poshposhCTR<$100	Yesavg 74¢	$28.46	$6.54	-$21.92	48% 590-645 (1235)
LR lryyy<$100	Noavg 71.1¢	$4.81	$5.61	+$0.8	44% 431-541 (972)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Noavg 70.5¢	$8.07	$3.32	+$1.25	49% 1307-1343 (2650)

Flaznorp

Invested

$1,579.04

Value

$1.8K

PnL

+$256.91

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

GoalLineGhost

Invested

$198.55

Value

$253.87

PnL

+$55.31

Record

55%

1693-1391 (3084)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382

Invested

$153.09

Value

$239.84

PnL

+$86.75

Record

42%

97-133 (230)

pvc975<$100

Invested

$73.68

Value

$61.21

PnL

-$12.46

Record

99%

175-2 (177)

38791873984189CTR

Yes

Invested

$279.38

Value

$26.49

PnL

-$62.59

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$84.23

Value

$20.78

PnL

-$63.45

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

Limousin<$100

Invested

$10.09

Value

$19.05

PnL

+$8.96

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

RN1<$100

Invested

$4.13

Value

$6.58

PnL

+$2.45

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

poshposhCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.46

Value

$6.54

PnL

-$21.92

Record

48%

590-645 (1235)

lryyy<$100

Invested

$4.81

Value

$5.61

PnL

+$0.8

Record

44%

431-541 (972)

ferdinand2<$100

Invested

$8.07

Value

$3.32

PnL

+$1.25

Record

49%

1307-1343 (2650)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.

Smart Money Signal

8 of 11 top traders (73%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

7 traders

Top 2 hold 90%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

70% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 90% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.