Exact Score: Italy 1 - 1 France?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 82¢ · $2K held · ended Nov 12

Yes19¢No81¢Ended Thu, Nov 12, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.3K

Combined PnL

$433.93

Smart Money Entry

88.6¢ → 81.5¢

-8% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes19%

No82%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$1.3K

Total Shares1,465

Combined PnL-$37.85

Yes7 traders

Total Value$764.85

Total Shares4,896

Combined PnL+$471.77

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
GC GC-P	Noavg 87.4¢	$524.5	$516	-$8.5	28% 171-441 (612)
NM NM-P	Noavg 87.3¢	$481.07	$476.53	-$4.54	59% 3556-2429 (5985)
LO lovedudleyCTR	Yesavg 2.7¢	$54.05	$280	+$225.95	— 2-10 (12)
RN1ARB<$100	Noavg 90.4¢	$203.61	$252.14	+$48.53	56% 4529-3502 (8031)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 7.9¢	$71.18	$126.21	+$55.03
└ No leg	Noavg 90.4¢	$132.43	$125.93	-$6.5
LI LimousinCTR	Yesavg 10.4¢	$140.38	$248.91	+$108.53	33% 563-1169 (1732)
LU LuckyLoo	Noavg 93¢	$215.85	$198.39	-$17.46	35% 221-416 (637)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 7.9¢	$62.31	$122.59	+$60.28	51% 2634-2567 (5201)
ZT ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100	Noavg 92¢	$100	$91.3	-$8.7	29% 175-437 (612)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Yesavg 4.2¢	$76.35	$88.36	+$74.51	48% 2298-2502 (4800)
LI LightParadoxCTR<$100	Yesavg 14.7¢	$13.39	$15.04	+$1.64	33% 585-1187 (1772)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Yesavg 12.5¢	$7.49	$8.4	+$0.91	34% 592-1164 (1756)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 88¢	$5.15	$6.51	+$1.35	54% 1032-892 (1924)
VE VenusianCTR<$100	Yesavg 17¢	$1.6	$1.55	-$0.05	32% 565-1192 (1757)

GC-P

Invested

$524.5

Value

$516

PnL

-$8.5

Record

28%

171-441 (612)

NM-P

Invested

$481.07

Value

$476.53

PnL

-$4.54

Record

59%

3556-2429 (5985)

lovedudleyCTR

Yes

Invested

$54.05

Value

$280

PnL

+$225.95

Record

—

2-10 (12)

RN1ARB<$100

Invested

$203.61

Value

$252.14

PnL

+$48.53

Record

56%

4529-3502 (8031)

Both legs:

Invested

$140.38

Value

$248.91

PnL

+$108.53

Record

33%

563-1169 (1732)

LuckyLoo

Invested

$215.85

Value

$198.39

PnL

-$17.46

Record

35%

221-416 (637)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$62.31

Value

$122.59

PnL

+$60.28

Record

51%

2634-2567 (5201)

ZTMZqClEsjMmwCDWXoG<$100

Invested

$100

Value

$91.3

PnL

-$8.7

Record

29%

175-437 (612)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$76.35

Value

$88.36

PnL

+$74.51

Record

48%

2298-2502 (4800)

LightParadoxCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$13.39

Value

$15.04

PnL

+$1.64

Record

33%

585-1187 (1772)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$7.49

Value

$8.4

PnL

+$0.91

Record

34%

592-1164 (1756)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$5.15

Value

$6.51

PnL

+$1.35

Record

54%

1032-892 (1924)

VenusianCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.6

Value

$1.55

PnL

-$0.05

Record

32%

565-1192 (1757)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 82%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed7 hold an outcome priced under 50%6 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

-7 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 77%

Freshness

Fresh

10h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 77% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrYes 60% · 5

Diverging

Top 1000No 50% · 10

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance83.2%

81.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$20.16

Max Loss

-$100.00

120.2

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.