Will Austria win on 2026-11-17?

3 of 10 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (30%) · Yes at 56¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 17

Yes56¢No44¢Ends Tue, Nov 17, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 30%

Total Value

$2.4K

Combined PnL

$60.1

Smart Money Entry

61¢ → 56¢

-8% since entry · 3 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes56%

No44%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes3 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,014

Combined PnL-$58.96

No7 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,767

Combined PnL+$119.06

Yes — 30%No — 70%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA darkumbreon88	Yesavg 61¢	$1.2K	$1.1K	-$58.17	61% 1081-678 (1759)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 39.7¢	$990.21	$1.1K	+$106.2	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
FE ferdinand2CTR<$100	Noavg 39.5¢	$62.43	$69.52	+$7.09	48% 2518-2728 (5246)
rayvanmechelen<$100	Yesavg 62¢	$45.26	$44.53	-$0.73	16% 58-297 (355)
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$25.84	$28.56	+$2.72	56% 649-514 (1163)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Noavg 35.3¢	$11.94	$14.19	+$2.25	47% 27-30 (57)
OD OddstormCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$2.81	$3.28	+$0.47	35% 138-251 (389)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 38¢	$1.9	$2.1	+$0.2	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
SU suntori<$100	Yesavg 64¢	$1.42	$1.35	-$0.07	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Noavg 36¢	$0.8	$0.93	+$0.13	53% 2305-2071 (4376)

darkumbreon88

Yes

Invested

$1,182.7

Value

$1.1K

PnL

-$58.17

Record

61%

1081-678 (1759)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$990.21

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$106.2

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

ferdinand2CTR<$100

Invested

$62.43

Value

$69.52

PnL

+$7.09

Record

48%

2518-2728 (5246)

rayvanmechelen<$100

Yes

Invested

$45.26

Value

$44.53

PnL

-$0.73

Record

16%

58-297 (355)

LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100

Invested

$25.84

Value

$28.56

PnL

+$2.72

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

guilttripCTR<$100

Invested

$11.94

Value

$14.19

PnL

+$2.25

Record

47%

27-30 (57)

OddstormCTR<$100

Invested

$2.81

Value

$3.28

PnL

+$0.47

Record

35%

138-251 (389)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$1.9

Value

$2.1

PnL

+$0.2

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

suntori<$100

Yes

Invested

$1.42

Value

$1.35

PnL

-$0.07

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Invested

$0.8

Value

$0.93

PnL

+$0.13

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 56%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

3 of 10 top traders (30%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Building

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Mature

14h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 71% · 7

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance58.2%

56.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$71.75

Max Loss

-$100.00

171.7

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.