Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (62%). 9 of 12 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Croatia win on 2026-11-15?
9 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (75%) · No at 39¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 15
⚖️
Neutral
No
12
No 75%
$1.2K
$10.12
37.9¢ → 38.5¢
+2% since entry · 9 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 39%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
9 of 12 top traders (75%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 62%)9 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
-8 pts consensus
Breadth
8 traders
Top 2 hold 61%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 61% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpCTR | Noavg 37.9¢ | $553.8 | $562.22 | +$8.42 | 49% 4352-4620 (8972) |
P1 P1kasoCTR | Noavg 37.9¢ | $231.88 | $232.23 | +$0.35 | 21% 32-119 (151) |
GC GC-PCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $172.22 | $172.22 | +$0 | 41% 488-696 (1184) |
NM NM-PCTR | Noavg 38¢ | $159.94 | $159.94 | +$0 | 59% 3894-2672 (6566) |
LE LeLynxMalynxCTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $49.78 | $49.78 | +$0 | 56% 621-486 (1107) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.6¢ | $22.58 | $23.1 | +$0.52 | 53% 2078-1852 (3930) |
38 38791873984189CTR<$100 | Noavg 38¢ | $19 | $19.25 | +$0.25 | 47% 3580-3963 (7543) |
SE sentrioCTR<$100 | Noavg 37.4¢ | $10.75 | $10.92 | +$0.17 | 41% 1124-1597 (2721) |
SU suntori<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $9.52 | $9.44 | -$0.08 | 46% 2978-3516 (6494) |
TH thatsabing0<$100 | Yesavg 62¢ | $3.15 | $3.15 | +$0 | 62% 251-153 (404) |
GU guilttripCTR<$100 | Noavg 30¢ | $1.77 | $2.24 | +$0.47 | 45% 25-30 (55) |
DA darkumbreon88<$100 | Yesavg 61¢ | $0.62 | $0.63 | +$0.01 | 61% 1069-671 (1740) |
Invested
$553.8
Value
$562.22
PnL
+$8.42
Record
49%
4352-4620 (8972)
Invested
$231.88
Value
$232.23
PnL
+$0.35
Record
21%
32-119 (151)
Invested
$172.22
Value
$172.22
PnL
+$0
Record
41%
488-696 (1184)
Invested
$159.94
Value
$159.94
PnL
+$0
Record
59%
3894-2672 (6566)
Invested
$49.78
Value
$49.78
PnL
+$0
Record
56%
621-486 (1107)
Invested
$22.58
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$0.52
Record
53%
2078-1852 (3930)
Invested
$19
Value
$19.25
PnL
+$0.25
Record
47%
3580-3963 (7543)
Invested
$10.75
Value
$10.92
PnL
+$0.17
Record
41%
1124-1597 (2721)
Invested
$9.52
Value
$9.44
PnL
-$0.08
Record
46%
2978-3516 (6494)
Invested
$3.15
Value
$3.15
PnL
+$0
Record
62%
251-153 (404)
Invested
$1.77
Value
$2.24
PnL
+$0.47
Record
45%
25-30 (55)
Invested
$0.62
Value
$0.63
PnL
+$0.01
Record
61%
1069-671 (1740)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
38.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.