Croatia leading at halftime?

4 of 11 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (36%) · Yes at 100¢ · $3K held · ended Nov 15

Yes>99¢No<1¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 36%

Total Value

$2.8K

Combined PnL

-$377.46

Smart Money Entry

85.3¢ → 100¢

+17% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes100%

No0%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$2.8K

Total Shares2,768

Combined PnL+$167.67

No7 traders

Total Value$10.27

Total Shares4,045

Combined PnL-$545.13

Yes — 36%No — 64%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
KM kmak1	Yesavg 87¢	$1.5K	$1.7K	+$223.28	— 8-10 (18)
GO GoalLineGhost	Yesavg 90¢	$987.7	$841.66	-$146.04	52% 2587-2373 (4960)
SU suntori	Yesavg 49¢	$94.28	$184.71	+$90.43	46% 3397-3944 (7341)
PV pvc975<$100	Yesavg 99.9¢	$9.99	$10	+$0.01	98% 542-12 (554)
0X 0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100	Noavg 51¢	$69.36	$5.44	-$63.92	47% 507-561 (1068)
RN1CTR	Noavg 13¢	$294.19	$4	-$290.19	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
MA MadridTimeCTR<$100	Noavg 10¢	$83.64	$0.42	-$83.22	38% 1416-2272 (3688)
38 38791873984189CTR<$100	Noavg 15.5¢	$67.78	$0.22	-$67.56	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
TO topdogbigboiCTR<$100	Noavg 9¢	$19.27	$0.11	-$19.16	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
FL FlaznorpCTR<$100	Noavg 12¢	$20.29	$0.08	-$20.21	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
SN SnakeBallCTR<$100	Noavg 10.4¢	$0.87	$0	-$0.86	46% 1234-1428 (2662)

kmak1

Yes

Invested

$1,500

Value

$1.7K

PnL

+$223.28

Record

—

8-10 (18)

GoalLineGhost

Yes

Invested

$987.7

Value

$841.66

PnL

-$146.04

Record

52%

2587-2373 (4960)

suntori

Yes

Invested

$94.28

Value

$184.71

PnL

+$90.43

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

pvc975<$100

Yes

Invested

$9.99

Value

$10

PnL

+$0.01

Record

98%

542-12 (554)

0x99F0d31fdced5B3A0e5Ee2867730A6644a6C9495-1779037126382CTR<$100

Invested

$69.36

Value

$5.44

PnL

-$63.92

Record

47%

507-561 (1068)

RN1CTR

Invested

$294.19

Value

PnL

-$290.19

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

MadridTimeCTR<$100

Invested

$83.64

Value

$0.42

PnL

-$83.22

Record

38%

1416-2272 (3688)

38791873984189CTR<$100

Invested

$67.78

Value

$0.22

PnL

-$67.56

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

topdogbigboiCTR<$100

Invested

$19.27

Value

$0.11

PnL

-$19.16

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

FlaznorpCTR<$100

Invested

$20.29

Value

$0.08

PnL

-$20.21

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

SnakeBallCTR<$100

Invested

$0.87

Value

PnL

-$0.86

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 11 top traders (36%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

3 traders

Top 2 hold 93%

Freshness

Fresh

0h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

30% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sniperYes 100% · 1

Aligned

ctrNo 80% · 5

Diverging

Hand-pickedNo 100% · 1

Diverging

Top 1000No 70% · 10

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.