Croatia vs. Czechia: 1st Half O/U 1.5

10 of 15 top Polymarket traders hold Under (67%) · Under at 100¢ · $5K held · ended Nov 15

Over<1¢Under>99¢Ended Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Under

Consensus Traders

Under 67%

Total Value

$5.1K

Combined PnL

$1.3K

Smart Money Entry

58.7¢ → 100¢

+70% since entry · 10 traders

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Over0%

Under100%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Under10 traders

Total Value$4.9K

Total Shares5,016

Combined PnL+$1.7K

Over5 traders

Total Value$119.23

Total Shares849

Combined PnL-$348.17

Under — 67%Over — 33%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
DA dashattacker	Underavg 83¢	$1.3K	$1.6K	+$266.05	65% 370-195 (565)
RN1	Underavg 43.6¢	$537.31	$1.1K	+$544.23	54% 6095-5185 (11280)
FL Flaznorp	Underavg 42.5¢	$712.49	$1.1K	+$351.09	48% 4819-5125 (9944)
LO lonmi2511	Underavg 63¢	$529.37	$773.05	+$243.68	59% 762-531 (1293)
LI LightParadox	Underavg 33.7¢	$109.36	$324.19	+$214.83	38% 1425-2328 (3753)
SN SnakeBallCTR	Overavg 36¢	$120.7	$112.29	-$8.41	46% 1234-1428 (2662)
TO topdogbigboi<$100	Underavg 60¢	$46.04	$73.29	+$27.25	39% 1657-2634 (4291)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Underavg 63¢	$31.5	$46	+$14.5	57% 702-540 (1242)
VE Venusian<$100	Underavg 37¢	$3.5	$9.45	+$5.95	38% 1425-2300 (3725)
38 38791873984189CTR	Overavg 16.7¢	$624.59	$5.69	-$148.72	48% 4056-4455 (8511)
ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100	Underavg 88¢	$4.4	$5	+$0.6	83% 1030-210 (1240)
FE ferdinand2<$100	Underavg 30¢	$1.5	$5	+$3.5	48% 2643-2871 (5514)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Overavg 36.5¢	$3.65	$1	-$2.65	41% 1218-1750 (2968)
LI LimousinCTR	Overavg 38¢	$186.46	$0.25	-$186.21	38% 1401-2279 (3680)
SU suntoriCTR<$100	Overavg 49¢	$2.18	$0	-$2.18	46% 3397-3944 (7341)

dashattacker

Under

Invested

$1,300.87

Value

$1.6K

PnL

+$266.05

Record

65%

370-195 (565)

RN1

Under

Invested

$537.31

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$544.23

Record

54%

6095-5185 (11280)

Flaznorp

Under

Invested

$712.49

Value

$1.1K

PnL

+$351.09

Record

48%

4819-5125 (9944)

lonmi2511

Under

Invested

$529.37

Value

$773.05

PnL

+$243.68

Record

59%

762-531 (1293)

LightParadox

Under

Invested

$109.36

Value

$324.19

PnL

+$214.83

Record

38%

1425-2328 (3753)

SnakeBallCTR

Over

Invested

$120.7

Value

$112.29

PnL

-$8.41

Record

46%

1234-1428 (2662)

topdogbigboi<$100

Under

Invested

$46.04

Value

$73.29

PnL

+$27.25

Record

39%

1657-2634 (4291)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Under

Invested

$31.5

Value

$46

PnL

+$14.5

Record

57%

702-540 (1242)

Venusian<$100

Under

Invested

$3.5

Value

$9.45

PnL

+$5.95

Record

38%

1425-2300 (3725)

38791873984189CTR

Over

Invested

$624.59

Value

$5.69

PnL

-$148.72

Record

48%

4056-4455 (8511)

ARTEM-DZYUBA<$100

Under

Invested

$4.4

Value

PnL

+$0.6

Record

83%

1030-210 (1240)

ferdinand2<$100

Under

Invested

$1.5

Value

PnL

+$3.5

Record

48%

2643-2871 (5514)

sentrioCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$3.65

Value

PnL

-$2.65

Record

41%

1218-1750 (2968)

LimousinCTR

Over

Invested

$186.46

Value

$0.25

PnL

-$186.21

Record

38%

1401-2279 (3680)

suntoriCTR<$100

Over

Invested

$2.18

Value

PnL

-$2.18

Record

46%

3397-3944 (7341)

Research grade

NeutralUnder at 100%

Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
Spread or totalOct 22 backtest: spreads and totals −14.5 % a trade in spring (95 % CI −27 to −1), +1.5 % in October: no edge.

Smart Money Signal

Under

10 of 15 top traders (67%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%7 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+24 pts consensus

Breadth

10 traders

Top 2 hold 53%

Freshness

Fresh

4h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

67% of non-arb traders are on Under. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 53% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpUnder 100% · 2

Aligned

ctrUnder 50% · 8

Aligned

Hand-pickedUnder 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Under 67% · 15

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Under wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance99.9%

100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$0.10

Max Loss

-$100.00

100.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.