Will Czechia win on 2026-11-15?

5 of 12 top Polymarket traders hold No (42%) · No at 86¢ · $903 held · ends Nov 15

Yes14¢No86¢Ends Sun, Nov 15, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Consensus Traders

No 42%

Total Value

$902.78

Combined PnL

-$42.79

Smart Money Entry

84.2¢ → 85.5¢

+2% since entry · 5 traders

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes14%

No86%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

No5 traders

Total Value$545.18

Total Shares640

Combined PnL+$6.29

Yes7 traders

Total Value$357.6

Total Shares2,554

Combined PnL-$49.09

No — 42%Yes — 58%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
LI Limousin	Noavg 84¢	$411.18	$416.07	+$4.9	38% 1314-2163 (3477)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Yesavg 16¢	$232.8	$203.7	-$29.1	49% 4632-4895 (9527)
SN SnakeBall	Noavg 85¢	$115.91	$117.28	+$1.36	47% 1186-1358 (2544)
GO GoalLineGhostCTR	Yesavg 15.9¢	$132.5	$117.02	-$15.49	52% 2473-2263 (4736)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$25.78	$22.56	-$3.22	41% 1173-1667 (2840)
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100	Noavg 84¢	$5.25	$5.31	+$0.06	56% 649-514 (1163)
GC GC-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$5.71	$5	-$0.71	42% 547-747 (1294)
SU suntori<$100	Noavg 86¢	$4.76	$4.73	-$0.03	46% 3204-3750 (6954)
P1 P1kasoCTR<$100	Yesavg 14¢	$4.36	$4.36	+$0	21% 32-119 (151)
GH ghorrockCTR<$100	Yesavg 16¢	$3.33	$2.91	-$0.42	53% 2305-2071 (4376)
NM NM-PCTR<$100	Yesavg 15¢	$2.2	$2.05	-$0.15	59% 3948-2729 (6677)
LonnieHawkinss<$100	Noavg 85¢	$1.78	$1.78	+$0	57% 60-45 (105)

Limousin

Invested

$411.18

Value

$416.07

PnL

+$4.9

Record

38%

1314-2163 (3477)

FlaznorpCTR

Yes

Invested

$232.8

Value

$203.7

PnL

-$29.1

Record

49%

4632-4895 (9527)

SnakeBall

Invested

$115.91

Value

$117.28

PnL

+$1.36

Record

47%

1186-1358 (2544)

GoalLineGhostCTR

Yes

Invested

$132.5

Value

$117.02

PnL

-$15.49

Record

52%

2473-2263 (4736)

sentrioCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$25.78

Value

$22.56

PnL

-$3.22

Record

41%

1173-1667 (2840)

LeLynxMalynx<$100

Invested

$5.25

Value

$5.31

PnL

+$0.06

Record

56%

649-514 (1163)

GC-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$5.71

Value

PnL

-$0.71

Record

42%

547-747 (1294)

suntori<$100

Invested

$4.76

Value

$4.73

PnL

-$0.03

Record

46%

3204-3750 (6954)

P1kasoCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$4.36

Value

$4.36

PnL

+$0

Record

21%

32-119 (151)

ghorrockCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$3.33

Value

$2.91

PnL

-$0.42

Record

53%

2305-2071 (4376)

NM-PCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$2.2

Value

$2.05

PnL

-$0.15

Record

59%

3948-2729 (6677)

LonnieHawkinss<$100

Invested

$1.78

Value

$1.78

PnL

+$0

Record

57%

60-45 (105)

Research grade

NeutralNo at 86%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.

Smart Money Signal

5 of 12 top traders (42%)7 hold an outcome priced under 50%8 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Surging

+6 pts consensus

Breadth

5 traders

Top 2 hold 98%

Freshness

Fresh

11h old

Flip Quality

Clean

0 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

42% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

sharpYes 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrNo 60% · 5

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 58% · 12

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that No wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance87.1%

85.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$14.83

Max Loss

-$100.00

114.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.