Will Germany win on 2026-11-16?

4 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 52¢ · $2K held · ends Nov 16

Yes52¢No48¢Ends Mon, Nov 16, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚖️

Neutral

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 50%

1 arb excluded

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

$48.26

Smart Money Entry

51¢ → 51.5¢

+1% since entry · 4 traders

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes52%

No49%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes4 traders

Total Value$1.2K

Total Shares2,375

Combined PnL+$11.87

No4 traders

Total Value$699.68

Total Shares1,448

Combined PnL+$36.38

Yes — 50%No — 50%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
JA JAMJAMJAM4	Yesavg 51¢	$979.2	$988.8	+$9.6	4% 19-516 (535)
FL FlaznorpCTR	Noavg 46¢	$446.88	$471.5	+$24.62	49% 3821-3983 (7804)
rayvanmechelenCTR	Noavg 46.1¢	$209.26	$217.73	+$8.47	9% 30-286 (316)
NM NM-P	Yesavg 51¢	$125.72	$126.95	+$1.23	59% 3763-2587 (6350)
LE LeLynxMalynxARB<$100	Yesavg 52¢	$94.92	$96.78	+$1.86	56% 463-370 (833)
└ Yes leg	Yesavg 52¢	$63.42	$62.83	-$0.59
└ No leg	Noavg 45¢	$31.5	$33.95	+$2.45
GC GC-P<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$89.25	$90.13	+$0.88	37% 353-603 (956)
GH ghorrock<$100	Yesavg 51¢	$17.07	$17.24	+$0.17	52% 1721-1568 (3289)
SE sentrioCTR<$100	Noavg 45¢	$8.22	$8.77	+$0.55	42% 995-1363 (2358)
GU guilttripCTR<$100	Noavg 48.6¢	$17	$1.67	+$2.74	42% 18-25 (43)

JAMJAMJAM4

Yes

Invested

$979.2

Value

$988.8

PnL

+$9.6

Record

19-516 (535)

FlaznorpCTR

Invested

$446.88

Value

$471.5

PnL

+$24.62

Record

49%

3821-3983 (7804)

rayvanmechelenCTR

Invested

$209.26

Value

$217.73

PnL

+$8.47

Record

30-286 (316)

NM-P

Yes

Invested

$125.72

Value

$126.95

PnL

+$1.23

Record

59%

3763-2587 (6350)

LeLynxMalynxARB<$100

Yes

Invested

$94.92

Value

$96.78

PnL

+$1.86

Record

56%

463-370 (833)

Both legs:

Invested

$89.25

Value

$90.13

PnL

+$0.88

Record

37%

353-603 (956)

ghorrock<$100

Yes

Invested

$17.07

Value

$17.24

PnL

+$0.17

Record

52%

1721-1568 (3289)

sentrioCTR<$100

Invested

$8.22

Value

$8.77

PnL

+$0.55

Record

42%

995-1363 (2358)

guilttripCTR<$100

Invested

$17

Value

$1.67

PnL

+$2.74

Record

42%

18-25 (43)

Research grade

NeutralYes at 52%

Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).

Smart Money Signal

Yes

4 of 8 top traders (50%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-50 pts consensus

Breadth

4 traders

Top 2 hold 91%

Freshness

Mature

18h old

Flip Quality

Watch

1 consensus flip

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 91% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

ctrNo 67% · 3

Diverging

Top 1000Yes 50% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance53.7%

51.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$86.06

Max Loss

-$100.00

186.1

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.