Will Hungary win on 2026-11-14?
5 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold No (71%) · No at 62¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 14
⚖️
Neutral
No
7
No 71%
1 arb excluded
$1.3K
-$0.38
61.1¢ → 62¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 62%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 7 top traders (71%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+4 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 85%
Freshness
Mature
22h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
71% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 85% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
FL FlaznorpARB<$100 | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $710.19 | $702.37 | -$7.82 | 51% 2892-2823 (5715) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 38.3¢ | $461.18 | $457.21 | -$3.97 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 62¢ | $249 | $245.16 | -$3.84 | |
P1 P1kaso | Noavg 61¢ | $243.98 | $243.98 | -$0 | 14% 18-112 (130) |
OD OddstormCTR | Yesavg 38¢ | $201.78 | $201.78 | +$0 | 30% 67-157 (224) |
SE sentrio<$100 | Noavg 62¢ | $56.27 | $55.39 | -$0.88 | 42% 719-993 (1712) |
LE LeLynxMalynx<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $31.72 | $31.72 | -$0 | 55% 275-224 (499) |
 fyrsken<$100 | Noavg 60¢ | $12 | $12.2 | +$0.2 | 48% 30-33 (63) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 61¢ | $40.46 | $10.76 | +$0.3 | 53% 1159-1020 (2179) |
HE hedgevaultmainnet1CTR<$100 | Yesavg 38¢ | $4.86 | $4.86 | +$0 | 48% 38-42 (80) |
Invested
$710.19
Value
$702.37
PnL
-$7.82
Record
51%
2892-2823 (5715)
Both legs:
Invested
$243.98
Value
$243.98
PnL
-$0
Record
14%
18-112 (130)
Invested
$201.78
Value
$201.78
PnL
+$0
Record
30%
67-157 (224)
Invested
$56.27
Value
$55.39
PnL
-$0.88
Record
42%
719-993 (1712)
Invested
$31.72
Value
$31.72
PnL
-$0
Record
55%
275-224 (499)
fyrsken<$100Invested
$12
Value
$12.2
PnL
+$0.2
Record
48%
30-33 (63)
Invested
$40.46
Value
$10.76
PnL
+$0.3
Record
53%
1159-1020 (2179)
Invested
$4.86
Value
$4.86
PnL
+$0
Record
48%
38-42 (80)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
62.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.